What the IDF’s Seizure of Hezbollah’s Senior Naval Operative Means

At the beginning of November, twenty Israeli commandos belonging to the elite unit Shayetet 13, wearing Lebanese uniforms, arrived by speedboat at the northern Lebanese town of Batrun. They went at once to the house where Emad Fadel Amhz, a senior member of Hezbollah, who is also reportedly a member of the Lebanese Navy, was living, seized him, and took him to the waiting speedboat that whisked him off to Israel. And now he is being interrogated about Hezbollah naval bases and capabilities. Hezbollah, of course, has no way of knowing what information he will reveal to his captors and what measures it now must take to minimize the damage those revelations to his Israeli interrogators could cause. More on the capture of Fadel Amhz, and the resulting conundrum for Hezbollah, can be found here: “Israel’s arrest of senior Hezbollah operative could change the game, expert predicts,” by Shaked Sadeh, Jerusalem Post, November 4, 2024:

After Israeli commandos apprehended a senior Hezbollah operative who specialized in maritime activities in the town of Batrun in northern Lebanon, Prof. Amatzia Baram, an expert in Middle Eastern studies, explained the Shayetet 13’s special operation had a significant impact on the terror organization and may even force it to move its bases and adjust its plans….

Baram emphasized the sophistication of Hezbollah’s naval unit, saying, “They are trained and equipped by the Iranian Navy, known for its high professional standards. The small, fast vessels are designed for rapid raids along Israel’s coastline, particularly targeting areas from Nahariya and Acre to even Haifa. Though such attacks have not yet materialized, the threat remains.”

He added that the arrest increases pressure on Hezbollah, which now faces embarrassment and a strategic dilemma.

Will Hezbollah alter its plans?

“They must decide whether to alter their operational plans and relocate bases or gamble that the detainee won’t divulge critical information,” Baram noted….

Baram concluded by asserting that Israel should leverage its operational successes to gain an advantage before entering any diplomatic resolution.

“The challenge lies in influencing not just the battlefield but also public opinion and leadership in Lebanon. Weakening public support for Hezbollah and diminishing their ability to sway civilians could lead to a ceasefire on terms favorable to Israel.”

Hezbollah has been dealt blow after blow by the IDF. It has killed both Hezbollah’s head, Hasan Nasrallah, and his heir apparent, Hashem Safieddine, as well as the commander, deputy commander, and many senior members of Hezbollah’s elite unit, the Radwan Forces. Ten of the twelve members of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council have now been killed. Close to three thousand Hezbollah combatants have been killed since the IDF began its ground operation in southern Lebanon on October 1. Thousands of its operatives have been wounded, including 3,000 from the “exploding pagers” alone. Even before the ground invasion that began on October 1, Israeli airstrikes had destroyed about half of Hezbollah’s enormous arsenal — 150,000 total — of rockets, missiles, and mortars. Now the IDF has uncovered enormous quantities of weapons that it has either destroyed or taken back to Israel for use by the IDF. It is now believed that of the 50,000 missiles Hezbollah possessed on October 8, 2023, only 10,000 remain. And these losses of both men and weapons — especially in the “exploding pagers” operation — have had an enormous impact on public opinion in Lebanon. The destruction of so much infrastructure, not all of which was limited to Hezbollah areas, has also increased calls for a ceasefire. IAF attacks on Beirut have virtually ended tourism — once a major source of revenue — to the country. The Christians and Sunni Muslims are enraged at the damage Hezbollah has brought down on Lebanon; even many Shi’a have begun to publicly question Hezbollah’s insistence on continuing a war that has been so harmful to Lebanese civilians. Amatzia Baram argues that all these losses have increased calls from the Lebanese for Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire.

And now Hezbollah has to wonder about what its naval commander Emad Fadel Amhz will tell the Israelis. A little, a lot, nothing at all? Will he tell them about what naval bases Hezbollah possesses? Or where its vessels are now stationed along the coast, or even, perhaps, hidden in warehouses on shore? Will he reveal what weapons are on those boats? Should Hezbollah now move its vessels, on the assumption that the IAF has been told where they are located? Or should it have faith that Fadel Amhz will not reveal any secrets to his Israeli interrogators, and those vessels can stay put? There’s so much to worry about.