US Warns Iran It Won’t Be Able to Hold Israel Back

While the Supreme Leader and other Iranian leaders threaten to deliver a “crushing response” to Israel, the Americans have told Iran that if the Islamic Republic now launches an attack on the Jewish state, Washington will not be able to hold the IDF back. It’s a sign that the Israelis will take the occasion of any such attack as all the excuse they need to hit the oil and nuclear installations that they refrained from hitting, in deference to the Americans, on October 25. In that three-hour attack, 100 Israeli planes conducted airstrikes in Tehran, Khuzestan, and Ilam, destroying Iran’s air defenses, including all four S-300 surface-to-air missile defense systems that protected Tehran, and all of its ballistic missile plants.

More on this welcome warning, which suggests that the Biden administration, having been deferred to once by Israel, understands why at this point Israel has both the right, and the duty, to eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat, can be found here: “US to Iran: Avoid strikes or face unrestrained Israeli retaliation – report,” Jerusalem Post, November 2, 2024:

The Biden administration recently cautioned Iran against launching another attack on Israel, emphasizing that it could not restrain an Israeli response if provoked again, Walla reported on Saturday evening.

The warning follows Iran’s October 1 attack on Israel, which retaliated against Israeli targeted operations. Israel’s response included strikes on military targets but excluded strategic sites like nuclear and oil facilities. These facilities could be potential targets should Iran initiate further attacks.

It is the nuclear facilities that many in Israel are now determined to destroy. Many regretted that Prime Minister Netanyahu promised the Americans that Israel would not hit those sites on October 25. But that promise was not open-ended; it was a one-time act of abnegation, not to be repeated..

A senior US official disclosed to Walla that Washington informed Tehran it would not be able to prevent Israel from reacting or ensure that any response would remain as limited and precise as before. This communication marked a rare direct message between the US and Iran.

According to a former Israeli official, the message was transmitted via the Swiss diplomatic channel, a longstanding conduit for US-Iran communications. The White House declined to comment, and the Iranian mission to the UN did not respond to requests for comment.

White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre reiterated on Friday that Iran should avoid any response, underlining continued US support for Israel in case of Iranian aggression. Pentagon spokesperson Gen. Pat Ryder announced additional military measures, including deploying destroyers for missile defense, a fighter squadron, refueling aircraft, and long-range B-52 bombers to the region. Ryder emphasized that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has made clear the US would act decisively to protect its forces and interests should Iran or its proxies strike….

Could those B-52 bombers, large and strong enough to carry the 30,000 pound bunker-buster bombs capable of destroying the underground nuclear facility at Fordow, be arriving in the Middle East for possible use by Israel? The Iranians must be factoring that possibility into their calculations.

Washington has not asked Israel to repeat its promise to avoid hitting oil and nuclear installations. It undoubtedly has been told by Prime Minister Netanyahu that once was enough, and the next time the IAF planes fly over Iran, no target will be off-limits, and the most important of all — the one which threatens Israel’s very survival — are its nuclear facilities. Iran now has been told it can’t count on the Americans to restrain the IDF, and the tone of the American warning suggests it would not be unhappy if Israel managed to devastate Iran’s nuclear program. Although the program has many components, the two most important are the enrichment plants at Natanz and Fordow. The Natanz complex near the Shi’ite holy city of Qom houses two enrichment plants: the vast, underground Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) and the above-ground Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP). And just 20 miles from Natanz is another fuel enrichment plant at Fordow, built deep underground, that the IAF will hit, possibly with 30,000 bunker buster bombs if the Americans can be persuaded to give them to Israel, or if not, the IAF could drop a deadly stillicide of smaller bunker busters, one on top of another, so as to create an ever-deepening hole that finally reaches the plant built underneath so much rock and earth, and destroys it.

Iran has been warned. At Israel’s defense headquarters in Tel Aviv, the Kirya, many are no doubt hoping that the Supreme Leader will provide all the excuse that Israel needs to accomplish its most important objective — the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program.