The IDF Pounds Hezbollah

The IDF keeps ratcheting up its attacks on Hezbollah. It has leveled many of the buildings in the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahieh, in southern Beirut. It has struck command and control centers, weapons storehouses, and fighters. It has killed at least a dozen senior commanders, including both Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, and his presumed successor, Hashem Safieddine. It has killed both the commander, Abbas Adnan Maslem, and the deputy commander, Mustafa Ahmad Shahadi, of Hezbollah’s elite unit, the Radwan Forces. The IDF has killed 10 of the 12 members of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council. It has killed about 2,250 Hezbollah fighters, and has severely wounded many thousands more who are no longer fit for military service, including 1,500 who were wounded by the “exploding pagers.” It has reduced Hezbollah’s storehouse of weapons — rockets, missiles, mortars — from 150,000 on October 7, 2023, to about 20% of that number today. The World Bank estimates that the losses to Lebanon, in destroyed buildings and economic disruption of all kinds (such as an end to tourism), amount to $8.5 billion, with most of the physical destruction suffered by Hezbollah in Dahieh.

And just now the IDF has killed Muhammad Afif, the head of Hezbollah’s propaganda unit. More on the IDF’s latest attacks on Hezbollah can be found here: “Israel’s strategy in Lebanon is choking Hezbollah into submission – analysis,” by Avi Ashkenazi, Jerusalem Post, November 17, 2024:

Images of collapsing buildings in Beirut’s Dahieh district over the last week have underscored Israel’s escalating campaign against Hezbollah and determined effort to shift the balance of power in Lebanon.

The past week specifically has marked a significant escalation in the fighting along Israel’s northern border. Analysts suggest that as negotiations over the Lebanon-Israel border arrangement progress, both sides have attempted to claim a symbolic advantage.

Hezbollah has ramped up its rocket attacks, targeting the Haifa Bay area and the Western Galilee to maintain pressure on Israel.

In response, the Israeli Air Force has intensified its daytime operations, striking deep into Beirut’s Dahieh neighborhood, a Hezbollah stronghold.

High-rise buildings have been leveled throughout the Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon.

Israel’s strategy to degrade and humiliate Hezbollah

While Hezbollah has aimed to preserve key units like its Radwan forces and maintain its position as Lebanon’s dominant military power, Israel has made its strategy of degrading Hezbollah’s military capabilities and weakening its stature clear….

The Lebanese, including the Shi’a, no longer listen to Hezbollah leaders. Their radios and televisions are tuned instead to the IDF Arabic-language spokesman, Col. Avichay Adraee. They listen to, and obey, his warnings about impending IDF attacks. Hezbollah’s claims of “victories” over the Zionists are no longer taken seriously.

The relentless strikes on Dahieh—captured in dramatic footage of collapsing high-rises—have visibly weakened Hezbollah’s standing. Israeli officials believe these actions will force the group into submission….

Every collapsing high-rise in Dahieh, the result of an IDF airstrike, is a visible testament to the IDF’s strength and Hezbollah’s weakness. Morale among Hezbollah’s ranks is sinking, as more of its commanders are killed, thousands of its combatants — 2,250 so far — killed, thousands more severely wounded, and 80% of its storehouse of missiles and rockets destroyed.

So far, Hezbollah has lost 2,250 combatants, and another 1,250 non-combatants. The IDF, by contrast, has lost only 31 soldiers, and 45 civilians. Hamas is being clobbered. The surest proof of this is Hezbollah letting it be known that it would be amenable to a ceasefire. Israel, on the other hand, insists there will be no ceasefire agreement unless Israel’s right to enter southern Lebanon should Hezbollah violate its promise to remain north of the Litani — the same promise it made in 2006, as required by the UN Resolution 1701, but then ignored — is recognized.

Hezbollah weapons caches have been seriously degraded, as noted here: “IDF reveals Hezbollah missile arsenal severely depleted since beginning of operations,” by Amir Bohbot, Jerusalem Post, November 10, 2024

…The IDF estimates that “80% of Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal within a range of up to 40 kilometers has been destroyed.” Initially, Hezbollah had around 5,000 medium-range rockets, but fewer than 1,000 remain. The group’s stockpile of over 44,000 short-range rockets has also been reduced, with only about 10,000 still operational.

Defense sources estimate that Hezbollah entered the conflict with hundreds of precision-guided missiles and now has fewer than 100, including a limited number of coastal missiles.

The IDF believes Hezbollah’s capacity for daily rocket launches has been severely impacted by sustained Israeli airstrikes over the past 18 months. “This difficulty is due to not only destroyed weapons depots and launch sites but also command and control issues resulting from the loss of fighters and commanders,” defense officials said, adding that “Hezbollah’s reluctance to use cellular devices, pagers, and radios” has further disrupted their operations….

The steep decline in the number of rockets and missiles Hezbollah has left in its arsenal can be seen every day in northern Israel. Where once up to 200 rockets were fired at Israel every day, now Hezbollah launches a few dozen at most.

Another sign of Israel’s confidence that Hezbollah has become progressively much weaker is the announcement that some of the 60,000 Israelis who evacuated the northern Galilee will soon be allowed to return home. Which communities are to be affected has not been made clear, but if such a move is now being contemplated, it must mean that Hezbollah is no longer seen as dangerous as it was just a few months ago. Its weapons caches have been so degraded that only 20% of the rockets and missiles it had a year ago remain intact. And in early October, Hezbollah said it wants a ceasefire. Of course it does. It is being hammered from pillar to post by the IDF. Now Hezbollah is considering a ceasefire agreement crafted by the U.S. It will likely agree to remove its troops near the Israeli border, pulling them back north of the Litani River. It is Israel that won’t agree to such a ceasefire unless it has an ironclad guarantee that its forces can re-enter Lebanon should Hezbollah violate the agreement by re-entering the area between the Litani River and the border with Israel.

Hezbollah is learning the hard way that the Israelis are no longer going to settle, as they did in 2006, for an agreement that neither the UNIFIL troops nor the Lebanese army were capable of enforcing. Now the IDF is going to insist on its freedom to police the agreement in southern Lebanon. And if Hezbollah refuses such an agreement? Then the IDF will keep grinding its forces into dust, while many Lebanese — and not just the Christians and the Sunnis — will be quietly delighted at the spectacle.