On That US-Brokered Ceasefire Agreement Between Israel and Hezbollah

Hezbollah is reeling from the relentless attacks by the IDF in Lebanon. Nearly 2,500 of its operatives have been killed in the last two months. Thousands more have been wounded, many rendered unfit for service, including the 1,500 wounded by the “exploding pagers.” Both Hezbollah’s head, Hassan Nasrallah, and his successor Hashem Safieddine, have been killed. So have the commander and deputy commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Forces. Ten of the twelve members of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council have been killed. Its command-and-control centers have been pulverized. Its arsenal of rockets has been reduced to 20% of prewar levels. Hezbollah’s tunnels, including those snaking into Israel, have been located and blown up. Many buildings in Hezbollah’s stronghold of Dahieh, in south Beirut, have been destroyed; the neighborhood now looks like a post-apocalyptic wasteland. Hezbollah is under immense pressure militarily, economically, and politically. Militarily, it is losing men and seeing its weapons caches destroyed day after day. Economically, the war has caused $8.5 billion in damage to Lebanon, most of it to the Hezbollah buildings in south Beirut. Politically, Hezbollah is now openly denounced by Lebanese of all sects — Christians, Sunnis, and even many Shi’a — for the destruction it has brought on the country. That is why Hezbollah, desperate to end the IDF’s campaign against it, has dropped its former demand that a ceasefire with Israel could only come after an end to hostilities in Gaza.

More on the proposed ceasefire agreement can be found here: “Hezbollah ‘under immense pressure’: Firm Israeli action needed in ceasefire agreement, expert says,” by Shaked Sadeh, Jerusalem Post, November 19, 2024:

Against the backdrop of the emerging US-brokered ceasefire agreement in the North, the challenges anticipated in its implementation, and the pressures on Hezbollah, Israel is at a pivotal juncture but must adopt a firmer stance against future threats, Professor Amatzia Baram, an expert in international relations and national security, told Maariv on Tuesday.

On Monday, the initial details of a ceasefire agreement being brokered by the United States and agreed upon by Israel were released.

The agreement includes significant changes to the existing arrangements, mainly addressing alterations to the composition of the international forces monitoring the border with Lebanon and stricter Israeli demands for the suppression of Hezbollah.

Amid these developments, US envoy Amos Hochstein is expected to arrive in Beirut.

Reports in Lebanese media indicated that the agreement involved a fundamental shift in the makeup of the international forces supervising the border. The new force will be led by the United States and France, departing from the UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which has been in effect since the Second Lebanon War. Moreover, Israel’s demands go beyond pushing Hezbollah north of the Litani River; they include the destruction of all the organization’s infrastructure beyond that line.

For the first time, the US, Israel’s main ally, will not just contribute troops, but will lead the forces that will be stationed between the Litani River and the Lebanese-Israeli border, thereby making much more likely that this new agreement, which will replace UN Security Council Resolution 1701, is not easily violated by Hezbollah, as that UN resolution has been ever since it was passed in 2006.

“This is not just another routine agreement,” emphasized Prof. Baram. “This time, Israel is demanding more aggressive conditions—not only to distance Hezbollah physically but to ensure that its facilities and infrastructure are completely destroyed. This is a significant escalation in Israel’s security doctrine against Hezbollah.”…

Before now, the Israelis had wanted only that Hezbollah remain north of the Litani River, as stipulated in UNSC Resolution 1701, but Hezbollah has continually violated its promise to do so, and now Israel is determined to make sure not just that Hezbollah stays north of the Litani, but that it is destroyed as a military threat throughout Lebanon.

Hezbollah is no longer demanding that the Gaza war end before it will agree to a ceasefire with Israel. Hamas is now left on its own; Hezbollah’s distress is simply too great. Hebollah’s backer, Iran, has told it to forget about what is happening in Gaza and make the best deal it can to stop Israel’s powerful assault in Lebanon.

Ever since the adoption by the UN Security Council of Resolution 1701, Hezbollah has violated its terms, keeping its troops in the area between the Litani River and the Israeli border, when they were supposed to be withdrawn. Israel has complained, repeatedly, but in all these years, UNIFIL has not dared to challenge Hezbollah fighters. Now Israel is determined not only to have a stronger international force, led by the Americans, but it wants the recognition of its right to enter any part of Lebanon to make sure that Hezbollah does not rearm anywhere, and that it does not return its fighters to the area south of the Litani River.