Israel and Hizballah: ‘We Must Not Repeat Past Mistakes’

While a stronger international force, led by the Americans, to police the area between the Litani River and the border with Israel, is welcome, in the end, only the IDF can truly ensure that Hezbollah does not return to that area in southern Lebanon. And Israel wants the IDF’s right to enter Lebanon to ensure that Hezbollah does not again rearm to be recognized in that letter written by the Americans.

The American letter gives the IDF the right to enter any part of Lebanon in order to make sure Hezbollah cannot rearm by smuggling Iranian-supplied weapons flown into Beirut airport or arriving overland from Syria. Having been burned once, a twice-shy Israel has no intention of letting Hezbollah get away with flouting this new ceasefire agreement, as it did the last one from 2006 until today.

Hezbollah spread its operatives all over the area south of the Litani river. But it was especially active in the villages right on the border with Israel. These “villages” were so full of Hezbollah men and weapons that it was hard to distinguish them from military outposts. Baram says Israel must insist that these militarized villages be closed, their population moved far enough away from the Israeli border to no longer constitute a threat. A No-Man’s-Land, of indeterminate width, would be created all along the Lebanese side of the border with Israel. “Hezbollah ‘under immense pressure’: Firm Israeli action needed in ceasefire agreement, expert says,” by Shaked Sadeh, Jerusalem Post, November 19, 2024:

Baram clarified that while this demand is not officially part of the agreement, it is critical for Israel’s security. “We must not repeat past mistakes where we allowed continuous violations out of fear of war. This time, Israel must take the risk and act decisively.”

Even if this demand — the closure of the militarized villages right on the border, and their populations resettled further north — is not part of the agreement now, Baram insists it must be made part of it to ensure quiet on the northern border. Will Hezbollah scream bloody murder and demand that the Lebanese government not agree, or will it, given its desperate condition, find itself compelled to accede to such a measure?

Baram thinks given the dire condition of Hezbollah, that worsens every day, the group will have to accept that Israeli demand. Right now, Hezbollah will still refuse to accept such an Israeli-imposed movement of villagers away from the border. But after it endures another month of the IDF’s devastating attacks, Hezbollah’s new leadership, headed by Naim Qassem, should come to their senses and agree to move those villagers away from the border with Israel.

Ever since 2006, Hezbollah has been violating its solemn obligation to withdraw its forces to the area north of the Litani River. It did not do so. Instead, it stationed even more of its troops throughout the south, settling them, and hiding immense caches of weapons, in the midst of civilian villages. UNIFIL did nothing. When Hezbollah launched rocket attacks on Israel, the IDF retaliated in tit-for-tat style. But in all that time, from 2006 to October 2023, the IDF did not launch a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, which would have been the only way to destroy Hezbollah’s warehouses of arms and to kill enough of its members to force Hezbollah out of southern Lebanon. Now, says Baram, the IDF’s right to attack Hezbollah forces, wherever in Lebanon they may be, to prevent their attempts to rearm and to reenter the area between the Litani and the border with Israel, must be recognized by the American government.

And Hezbollah, of course, cannot stop the Americans from giving such solemn assurances to Israel.

Israel can keep pounding Hezbollah until it finally gives in, agrees to pull all of its men and weapons north of the Litani River. And Israel can refuse to sign any ceasefire agreement until it receives the ironclad assurances from the Americans that the IDF can reenter any part of Lebanon — and not just the area south of the Litani — in order to prevent Hezbollah from rearming and reconstituting itself as a military threat to Israel.

What can Hezbollah do to prevent that outcome, one in which Israel gets all of its demands met — the demands set out by Professor Baram? Absolutely nothing.