Could Trump Pull Off a Massive Upset in Nevada?

New in PJ Media:

The first thing to bear in mind when considering whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win Nevada is that nearly ninety percent of the state’s population lives in Clark and Washoe countries, in which are located its three major cities, Las Vegas, Henderson and Reno. Like cities all over the country, Las Vegas, Henderson and Reno are deep blue: city-dwellers seem to like their homes being turned into crime-ridden wastelands. Thus, despite the fact that virtually the entire remainder of the state is heavily pro-Trump, Harris will likely come out on top there based on support from those two counties alone. And yet…

Trump can’t be counted out in Nevada. Three days before the election, five out of nine polls showed him leading Harris in Nevada, with the Susquehanna poll giving him a comfortable lead of no fewer than six points. Only two gave Harris the edge, with the other two showing the race as too close to call. Nevada hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since it chose George W. Bush over the effete Eastern elitist John Kerry in 2004, but Harris can’t count on Nevada as Democrats have in the recent past: Nevada voters may end up finding her vapidity and inauthenticity as off-putting as they found Kerry’s patrician arrogance.

Another indication that Trump has a real shot in Nevada is the fact that the polls are unanimous in showing Democrat incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen leading her Republican opponent, the war hero Sam Brown. The Las Vegas Review-Journal reported Friday, however, that Brown had “closed some of the gap between himself” and Rosen: “The latest poll shows Rosen with 48.6 percent support and Brown with 44.9 percent. A total of 4.2 percent are undecided.” Polling in October, by contrast, “had Rosen with 50 percent support, Brown with 42 percent and 5 percent undecided. The one from September had Rosen at 48 percent and Brown at 41 percent.”

Nevadans will also vote in four congressional races, and no surprises look to be in store: there are three incumbent Democrats and one incumbent Republican, all four are running again, and all four are leading in all the polls.

More drama surrounds two of the seven ballot measures. Nevada Question 3, the Top-Five Ranked-Choice Voting Initiative, would approve a state constitutional amendment that would establish, according to Ballotpedia, “open top-five primaries and ranked-choice voting for general elections, which would apply to congressional, gubernatorial, state executive official, and state legislative elections.”

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