In March 2020, Ibrahim Karagul, then of the Turkish government mouthpiece Yeni Safak, reflected the self-image and aspirations of the Turkish regime. For that, his piece remains relevant, and is worth examining in depth.
Karagul asserts that Turkey is one of the “new superpowers.” Yet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has alienated nearly everyone. If Erdogan has infuriated the other NATO members, he has also enraged the EU, by threatening to let loose millions of Muslim “refugees” — in reality, economic migrants — into Europe through Greece. Erdogan has been using the migrant threat to blackmail the EU into offering him more aid. And who knows how much more he may demand? Those four million Muslim migrants now in Turkey remain a potent threat.
Turkey has managed to antagonize its two most powerful neighbors, Russia and Iran, by fighting the Assad regime’s forces – that both countries support — in Syria’s Idlib Province. There is no love lost between Syria and Turkey; Syrians remember how the province of Alexandretta was snatched from them by Turkey in 1939, and turned into the Turkish province of Hayat. There has been bad blood between Syria and Turkey ever since. Sunni Turkey has naturally taken the side of the Sunni opposition against the Alawite (Shi’a) Bashar al-Assad.
In Karagul’s crystal ball, Turkey will be a “new superpower.” Does he not realize that, as of now, Turkey has no allies? None of the Arab states have forgotten their mistreatment by their Ottoman Turkish masters; Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman dreams fill them with dismay. The EU has no intention of granting Turkey membership; it doesn’t want another 80 million Muslims inside Europe.
What does Turkey have that could conceivably make it a superpower? Does it have supplies of oil or gas, like the Gulf Arabs? No, Turkey must import both. It is resource-poor. And its human capital has decreased. Does Turkey have a large scientific base? No, the modest base it did have has become more modest still, since Turkish scientists, almost all secularists, have been leaving Turkey for America and Western Europe. Turkey has in the last few years suffered, and continues to suffer, a severe brain drain. Here is how the New York Times put it on Jan. 2, 2019:
They [Turks] are leaving the country in droves and taking talent and capital with them in a way that indicates a broad and alarming loss of confidence in Mr. Erdogan’s vision, according to government statistics and analysts.
In the last two to three years, not only have students and academics fled the country, but also entrepreneurs, businesspeople, and thousands of wealthy individuals who are selling everything and moving their families and their money abroad.
Those leaving Turkey are members of the secular class that has been most alarmed at Erdogan’s re-Islamization of Turkey. He has undone Ataturk’s secularizing reforms. Women in universities and government offices can now be hijabbed. The army no longer cashiers officers who show signs of being too devout, as happened in the heyday of Kemalism. Erdogan has built thousands of mosques abroad, at great expense, and built, in Turkey, nearly 2000 of the Imam-Hatip high schools that stress religious studies, though they are not madrasas. These have provoked the brain drain, which increased after the purges of secularist opponents (and of “Gulenists,” too) that followed upon the failed coup of July 2016. Tens of thousands of lawyers, judges, university professors, teachers, army officers, and journalists were detained; thousands were sentenced to prison. This was the last draw for the secularists, who realize that they have no future in Erdogan’s Turkey; they’ve been leaving in a stream that has become a flood.
And what is this “new world” that Karagul says is being born? He states, he foresees, he claims, he insists, but Karagul gives us nothing to investigate or discuss further, nothing to analyze, nothing to praise or blame. He is beyond criticism, because he has said nothing. Let’s give him his due. Karagul is a kind of genius in reverse.
gravenimage says
Turkey: The New Superpower?
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Good analysis, Hugh. I think this “Turkey as the new Superpower” is just largely based on Turkey having been the last Caliphate–but the fact is that many Muslims, including virtually all of the Arabs under Ottoman rule, *hated* the Ottomans. They may feel a general nostalgia for the Caliphate, but for the Turks specifically? Not so much…
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Arabs may have hated the Ottomans. But 75% of the world’s muslims are non-Arab, and therefore not enamored w/ the idea of the ummah being a vehicle for Arab supremacy. That’s where the bulk of Turkey’s islamic support would come from: countries like Pakistan, Malaysia, Bangaldesh, et al. Note also that Turkey backs the muslim brotherhood, so it’s not like all Arabs would be opposed to them
St Croix says
With the Iranian Regime on the rocks, especially if Israel follows through–against the “advice” of Western nations who are basically desiring the end of the state of Israel–or a continued state of chaos and unbalance, keeping the Joos in line–there could be an opportunity for a new leader for the thugs to look to.
I have a gut feeling Erdogan will come to an end, in some way, in the not-too-distant future. Maybe death by natural causes, maybe stepping down, or being made to, or being “taken out”… And a new leader arising. One who is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. He will appear to be for peace. He will be rallying all hands for peace in the Middle East. All the while, doing as his religion of fake peace advises, and waiting for the right opportunity as he builds up force.
Turkey supported ISIS during their “heyday.” They are still there, sleepers, in a way, active but underground. Many are in South America, getting ready to swarm across the border, or already across.
Think of all the young Islamists who wanted to be part of the new caliphate forming; they’d certainly find their way to Turkey, just as they found their way to Syria. Then there’s Afghanistan, they are already buddies with Turkey. The airport has been given over to Turkey, which is also helping them to run their new country. Didn’t the U.S. leave behind a lot of good equipment? LOL. All of it can be put to good use, in the right hands.
Then there are the Malaysians. The Pakistanis. The Bangladeshis, as well as hordes of Islamists living in India. Maybe Qatar would like to throw in. Don’t forget all those Islamists now trying to take over the rest of Africa, working their way like a plague of locusts towards the south. Lots of them, and lots of resources in Africa to supply to the new caliphate, which they would hope will conquer the whole world!
Then, all the Iranians who have lost, and are actually loyal to the regime–besides Hezbollah, Houthis, etc. I know they are in the minority, but there are still quite a few. Thankfully most Iranian people are celebrating these days and cheering on Israel.
Then there are the eastern European/former USSR Islamists, groups and nations. And let’s not forget the Islamists already installed in the West, the fifth column of ISIS or similar types, who’d want to be part of the caliphate even working on the spot, vs. running off to Asia.
I think a revived caliphate could scrape up a decent following, many of these countries are very populous. They would have the numbers to overwhelm–especially if it’s a Trojan Horse situation, where they become ensconced as benevolent peacekeepers in the Middle East. Everything revolves around Israel. All they need to do is get situated in there as the wolf in sheep’s clothing, and wait for the right opportunity.
Just a hunch. I certainly wouldn’t mind being wrong. Let’s see what actually does happen. Things can change very quickly. Look how swiftly the whole world has changed in many ways since, oh, let’s say 2019. And since Oct 7, 2023. And the past weeks even have brought astounding changes in the Middle East as Israel has, in the face of much opposition from enemies and “allies” and media, achieved incredible victories. Much can change in a few months.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Turkey has a few things going for it that gives it a lot more geopolitical clout than, say, Russia
➤ There has been no greater islamizing influence throughout history than the Turks – surpassing even the Arabs. President Erdogan has it in his 16 Great Turkic Empires that he celebrates, some 8 of which were islamic (and the other 8 Jahaliya). That helps buttress Ankara’s claim to the leadership of the ummah
➤ While most Arab countries may be distrusting of and opposed to Erdogan, Turkey’s support to the muslim brotherhood & Hamas has earned it supporters even there. Arab states like Qatar, Yemen, Somalia, Algeria and the Palestinian authority have been happy to throw their support behind Turkey, despite opposition from the leadership of the Arab League, such as Egypt & Saudi Arabia. While Yemen & Somalia may be basketcases, that’s not true of Qatar or Algeria. Also, Arabs are just 25% of the global ummah, by population
➤ Turkey also has support from non-Arab sunni populations, which are the majority. Pakistan and Malaysia are already there, and the new Bangladesh regime is likely to follow. That increases Erdogan’s clout in the ummah even more
➤ Finally, there is the Organization of Turkic states, which is the Turkic equivalent of the Arab League. It has 4 of the -stans – Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan – on its rolls, w/ Turkmenistan likely to join at some point. Of these countries, Kazakhstan is oil rich, and when it joins, so is Turkmenistan
So if one looks at it from the POV of geopolitical influence, what Turkey has rivals what the Soviets had in terms of vassals in the heyday of the Cold War, and something that would make the Ottoman sultans proud. Allies like Malaysia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan, the -stans, Qatar, Algeria, Yemen, Somalia and “Palestine”. Oh, and w/ it, the various affiliates of the muslim brotherhood, including ISIS, al Qaeda, islamic movement of Turkistan, et al Certainly nothing to sneeze at
So no, at the end of the day, after China and its Belt/Road colonies and communist clients in the world, it’s Turkey that’s the biggest threat to the West, not Russia
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Oh, and one more thing: Turkey has the 2nd largest military in NATO, after the US. If the US is fully pre-occupied in the Indo-Pacific, guess where that leaves Europe. Forget Greece: I doubt that the EU could put together a military that could prevent Turkey overrunning the place if they wanted to
St Croix says
Very good points all.
Just look at the sheer numbers of fighters in these countries that would throw in their lot with Turkey, in all likelihood.
EU, oh my. France had to ask Qatar to help police the Olympics there recently. They’re basically lost already, they just don’t know it yet. They can’t even take care of internal defense.
And with so many people promoting the pro-terrorist propaganda lines, well, they are ripe for the picking. Oct. 7, all across Europe. What a grisly prospect. And these poor saps have zero idea what they’ve let in, they’ve no munitions to defend themselves.
somehistory says
Tonight, turkey is calling its citizens in Lebanon home because of what is happening with hezbollah.
Luchtpint says
https://anca.org/how-turks-have-been-viewed-through-irans-history/
How Turks have been viewed through Iran’s history:
Ferdowsi (925 – 1020 AD):
“No one has learned wisdom from Turks,
No one will obey a Turk.”
Asadi Tusi (11th Century):
“No one ever saw any loyalty from a Turk;
From Iranians they have seen nothing but loyalty.”
Khawaja Abdullah Ansari (1006 – 1088 AD):
“It would be surprising that a Turk would understand love,
As it would be surprising that a Turk does not rob and steal.”
Nizami (1140 – 1203 AD):
“Even the King did not know,
No such thing as a loyal Turk.”
Anvari (12th Century):
“As you have not started your journey with your gentle horse,
Don’t leave, the road is full of bloodthirsty Turks.”
Khaghani (1120 – 1190 AD):
“Drinking blood with a friend is an old tradition,
Turks are blood drinkers and don’t recognize their friends.”
Saati (1184 – 1283 AD):
“At that time you sent me a student,
A Turk; there was no one worse than him.”
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Ever since the islamization of Iran, and post Samanids, every dynasty that ruled Iran has been Turkish (except the Mongol Ilkhanate for a brief period)
➤ Ghaznavids
➤ Seljuqs
➤ Qhwarezmids
➤ Aq Qoyunlu
➤ Safavids (who were Azeris, albeit Twelver shi’a)
➤ Afsharids (who were Oghuz Turks from Turkmenistan)
➤ Qajarids (who too were Oghuz Turks)
In other words, the only Iranic dynasty that has ruled Iran since the Samanids has been the Pahlavis, and they are the dynasty that started to combat the shi’a clerics head-on, which culminated in the 1979 revolution. In short, the traditions that the Ayatollahs are committed to are all from various Turkic shi’a dynasties
So Iran’s people, in the process of de-islamification, would also have to de-Turkify their country, and recognize everything from the Ghaznavids to the Qajars as foreign, Turkic rule. Incidentally, all this would also make Iran a target of the Turkish ummah, just like Armenia is, should the current regime collapse and a secular establishment come up
Luchtpint says
That is historically 100% accurate, I dare say.
FYI says
Every time I come to Jihad watch a pop-up says “American Far Right Anti-muslim” blog which is funny because I am neither “Far Right” nor “Anti -muslim”.
To which i say “You don’t mind if my make up MY OWN MIND do ya?”but I like to say it in a southern drawl
oh you thought…..
In case you think that is “cultural appropriation”: i meant?.. South{City…American…African…Island New zealand}
Is that “politically incorrect”?To what party would that be?NazI,Communist,Hizbollah[“allah’s party”}.Lefties..{reallly Far Lefties}
Want out of islam?There is something amazing in koran 10:94{pickthall version}..ask the Turkish Murtadeen.
I see there is a spider on the wall?Is it from Mars,is it “far right”,”islamophobic”..?
I am supporter of the Murtadeen folk{ex-muslim “Apostates}many it seems are Turkhish.
gravenimage says
+1
OLD GUY says
Oh yes Turkey’s rulers dream of ruling the world. Never Happen.
terry says
Turkey is an arm of the Islam Crime Syndicate.
Daniel says
Perhaps the term 2nd or 3rd tier power might be more appropriate. However, this points out some interesting considerations. One of the main differences between Islam, with its built in need to conquer the world politically, and militarily, for their faith and Christianity, which is that generally uses peaceful and non-coercive means. There were past periods in Christendom were that was true but as a faith, we have gotten past that (except maybe for the occasional zealot that turns up). The other thing to consider is that this sort of societal restructuring is what western secularists fear Christians will do if they take political power as a majority. And it seems odd to me that the Western Left would make alliance with radical religionists of any kind, but seem to be doing so with the most virulent (perhaps they view them as more easily defeatable/manipulatable)…