To Strike, or Not to Strike, Iran

That is the question.

It’s a terrible dilemma, whether to strike, or not to strike, Iran at this time. Some say that Israel ought to have struck Iran’s nuclear program many years ago. But they forget that Israel did damage that program, as best it could. It set back that program by a year or two, first with the Stuxnet malware that caused thousands of uranium-enriching centrifuges to speed up and destroy themselves, and then with the assassinations of five of Iran’s most important nuclear scientists, including Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the head of the program. Israel did not then have the bunker-buster bombs that would have allowed it to strike the nuclear facility at Fordow. And in the last decade, Iran has carefully built its nuclear facilities across the country, making it more difficult for Israel to completely destroy the program.

Two Israeli military men, Maj-Gen (res.) Itzhak Brik, and security analyst Yair Ansbacher, have diametrically opposed views on dealing with Iran’s nuclear threat. Brik insists that an attack on Iran now would lead to Israel’s destruction; Ansbacher argues that Israel’s failure to attack Iran now would lead to Israel’s destruction. Both make compelling arguments, which you can read more about here: “Experts debate the urgency of striking Iran: Is time running out for Israel?,” by Natan Galula, Jerusalem Post, September 21, 2024:

Since October 7, Israeli citizens have been holding their collective breath, knowing that the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip and incessant fire exchanges on the northern border could escalate into a full-scale regional war at any moment.

The mysterious attack in Lebanon on Tuesday, in which thousands of pagers in the use of Hezbollah operatives exploded, apparently killing at least 11 and wounding thousands more, has made that possibility more likely than ever.

A war with the Iranian-backed militia to Israel’s north could quickly expand into war with Iran, which has yet to avenge the assassination of Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in late July, despite Islamic Republic leaders vowing a response.

Israel, in turn, stated it would exact a heavy price from the Iranian regime were it to carry out a significant attack against the Jewish state.

Maj-Gen. (res.) Itzhak Brik is adamant that war with Iran now would lead to Israel’s destruction.

Security expert Yair Ansbacher is convinced that war with Iran at this point is a must – to avoid Israel’s destruction.

This is the fork in the road that Israel faces today, 11 months after Hamas initiated the horrific October 7 attack, in which 1,200 Israelis and other nationals were murdered and 250 more were taken hostage.

Additional factors such as the apparent exhaustion of negotiations between Israel and Hamas for a ceasefire agreement, and the Israeli government’s decision earlier in the week to make the return of displaced northern residents an official war goal, have increased the likelihood of a regional war.

Speaking to The Jerusalem Post on the phone earlier in the week, Brik warned that Israel is not prepared for a multifront war.

“Iran and its proxies have 250,000 missiles, rockets, and drones encircling Israel. Which means about 4,000 munitions hitting the Israeli home front on a daily basis: population centers, Haifa Bay, water and electricity facilities, gas fields [in the Mediterranean Sea], IDF bases, and strategic civilian infrastructure. A regional war can ruin the State of Israel,” he stressed.

Brik further warned that Israel would enter this all-out war alone, without the aid of the United States.

Certainly if Kamala Harris becomes president, the U.S. is unlikely to intervene on the side of Israel if it attacks Iran first. She has promised to help Israel “defend itself,” but said nothing about what she would do in the case of an “offensive” attack by Israel.

“Iran is backed by Russia, China, and North Korea, who don’t want to lose their [Iranian] asset,” he said, explaining that the US will avoid getting involved in a war that could develop into a world war.

What Israel should do, he advised, is build a strategic alliance with Western and moderate Arab nations that will form a “deterrence balance” against Iran and its partners. Trying to thwart the Islamic Republic’s nuclear capacity is futile, he added, which “is a development that can’t be stopped.”…

How easy would it be to build a strategic alliance with “Western and moderate Arab nations” when the Arabs are enraged at the IDF’s conduct of the war in Gaza, and when such Western countries as Canada, the U.K., and Germany have put an embargo on certain weapons for Israel?