US Warns Iran of Catastrophic Consequences If It Attacks Israel

Washington has warned the Iranian government both directly, and through Arab intermediaries, that should Iran attack Israel, in revenge for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, it would face a potentially “devastating response.” The Americans, of course, know more about what the IDF is capable of than do the Iranians. More on this warning can be found here: “US warns Tehran of ruinous response to major attack on Israel,” by Joshua Marks, JNS, August 9, 2024:

The United States has cautioned Iran that it could face a devastating response from Israel if it carries out a major attack against the Jewish state.

A U.S. official told The Wall Street Journal that the message has been conveyed both directly to Tehran and through intermediaries, the paper reported on Thursday.

The Islamic Republic has vowed revenge for the targeted killing of Hamas terrorist chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week. Reports have surfaced this week that the mullah regime may be reconsidering the level of its response amid intensive diplomatic pressure and military force buildup by the Americans….

The new president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, is known to be arguing against the plans of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), whose generals want to hit Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities. Pezeshkian, instead, has urged the Ayatollah Khamenei not to attack Israel directly. He has expressed his fear that a “devastating response” by Israel against Iran could lead to a collapse of Iran’s economy (after, for example, the destruction of the oil terminals at Kharg Island), and a consequent mass disaffection among the Iranian people, and possibly even to the downfall of the regime. Arguing for such an attack are the generals of the IRGC, who believe they can handle a major war with Israel and appear not to realize what the IDF will be capable of in an all-out war, which it would fight far differently from the way it has done in Gaza, where it has been holding back its full power for the sake of minimizing civilian casualties. In a war with Iran, the IDF will be ready to level whole cities, destroy the oil terminals at Kharg Island, thereby crippling Iran’s economy, and make use of weapons the IDF has never yet used on the battlefield but that are being readied for such use. The Americans have a much better idea of what the IDF is capable of, and are trying to convince the Iranians not to tempt fate.

President Masoud Pezeshkian, who entered office on July 28, has pleaded with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to avoid a direct attack on Israel, warning that it could threaten his presidency and lead to devastation of Iran’s infrastructure, energy and economy, the London-based Iran International reported.

Pezeshkian told the supreme leader that a harsh Israeli counterattack could lead to the collapse of the regime.

The recently-elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, a former cardiac surgeon, is reputedly no ideologue but, rather, a “reformist” — meaning he does not seek an immediate end to the theocratic regime, but wants to put a check on the power of the mullahs to meddle in domestic life, and to limit the power of the IRGC to direct foreign and military policy. He has not expressed an objection to Iran’s use of proxies, including Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hezbollah in Lebanon, to which it sends both money and weapons, as a way to extend Iran’s power in the region and to harm Israel. But he is clearly wary of a direct military attack on Israel, for fear of the destruction the IDF could inflict on Iran’s economy, leading to popular protests that could bring down the regime.

It has been more than two weeks since Ismail Haniyeh was blown up by a bomb left in his room in a Tehran guesthouse guarded by members of the IRGC. Iran has made threats that it will retaliate against Israel. But in the meantime, the Americans have warned Iran of the “unforeseen consequences” of an Israeli response to such an attack. So have several Arab states. And so has that apparent realist, Masoud Pezeshkian, who fears for the regime’s continued stability after a massive Israeli attack. He has suggested that instead of hitting Israel directly, perhaps Iran’s military could instead attack Mossad bases located outside Israel, in neighboring Arab countries. So far, the level-headed in Tehran have prevailed. But if the IRGC has its way, and an attack on Israel is unleashed, and civilians are hit in Tel Aviv or Haifa, the IDF’s response will almost certainly spell the end of the Islamic Republic, something that many — perhaps most — in Iran would welcome.