The IDF’s Preemptive Strike and Its Possible Effect on the Gaza Negotiations

Having learned that Hezbollah planned a massive strike on Israel, with 6,000 rockets that it intended to unleash at 5 a.m. on August 25, the IDF struck first, sending 100 fighter jets over Lebanon, where they managed to destroy all but 320 of the 6,000 rockets and rocket launchers. Hezbollah did launch 320 rockets at Israel, but they caused only minor damage, and not one of them hit the most important targets — the military bases and the Mossad headquarters at Glilot. Exactly one Israeli, a sailor, was killed, by shrapnel that resulted from a Hamas rocket that had been intercepted by Iron Dome. Israel was pleased by the result, while Hezbollah, inwardly smarting from its stinging defeat, claimed to be satisfied with its “success” as well. More on Israel’s preemptive strike and its possible effects on the negotiations for a ceasefire-and-hostage deal can be found here: “Israel Says Hezbollah Thwarted but Situation on Lebanon Border ‘Not Sustainable,’” Algemeiner, August 26, 2024:

Israeli officials reacted with satisfaction on Monday after a long-expected missile attack by the Iranian-backed terrorist group Hezbollah appeared to have been largely thwarted by pre-emptive Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon.

Both Hezbollah and Israel seemed content to let Sunday’s attack, in retaliation for the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut last month, count as settled for the moment.

The IDF and Hezbollah had different reasons for not wanting to continue the exchange. The IDF wanted to return to giving its full attention to the war against Hamas, which it believes is on its last legs, it wants to keep the military pressure on, hoping to finally bring the war to an end with the defeat of the terror group. Having suffered a crushing defeat on August 25, Hezbollah has no desire to be pummeled yet again. Indeed, by way of face-saving, it simply lied, announcing to the world that it was Hezbollah, not the IDF, that was the victor in the latest exchange. It even claimed to have hit the IDF military bases that in fact were not hit by a single rocket.

Israeli government spokesperson David Mencer said Hezbollah had suffered a “crushing blow” from the Israeli strikes but that a longer lasting solution was still needed.

“The current situation is not sustainable,” he told a briefing, referring to the tens of thousands evacuated from their homes in northern Israel, a situation mirrored on the other side of the border in southern Lebanon. “Israel will do its duty and return its population to our sovereign territory.”…

Once the IDF has completed its mission in Gaza — to destroy the ability of Hamas to again threaten Israelis — it can turn its full attention to ending Hezbollah attacks on the north. After the great success of the preemptive attack on August 25, the IDF is likely to no longer be willing to limit its engagement to tit-for-tat attacks. From now on, without waiting for a Hezbollah attack, the IDF will launch its own, whenever it senses that a threat is building.

Hamas has been insisting that Israel give up control of the Philadelphi Corridor, a strip of land that lies in Gaza along the border with Egypt, before it will agree to a ceasefire-and-hostage deal. But some people think that Hezbollah’s defeat and Israel’s spectacular victory on August 25 might make Hezbollah decide to stop its attacks, for now, on northern Israel. Those attacks began on October 8 and were designed to help Hamas by forcing the IDF to fight on its northern front. Now, some Israelis believe, those attacks will end, and without that help, Hamas will no longer be able to extend its battle outside Gaza.

Hamas has tried to have its own war expand, drawing in both Hezbollah and Iran itself to fight against Israel. Iran tried a massive attack in April, sending 300 rockets and drones toward Israel, almost all of which were intercepted by Iron Dome and other anti-missile systems that the IDF possesses. Since then, Iran has not tried another attack. It has threatened to attack Israel in response to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh at a guesthouse in Tehran, but nearly a month has passed since that threat was made, and Tehran has done nothing. It h clearly does not want to run the risk of another IDF attack, that might send Iran’s already struggling economy into a nosedive. All the IDF has to do is attack the oil installations, including terminals, at Kharg Island, from where 90% of Iran’s oil is exported. It could also attack and do great damage to Iran’s main port of Bandar Abbas, that would cripple Iran’s import-and-export trade. Any further deterioration in Iran’s battered economy could lead to protest marches all over Iran, and possibly endanger the unpopular regime’s continued rule.

By declaring that its crushing defeat in its latest attack on Israel was in fact “successful,” Hezbollah hopes much of the world will believe that lie, especially the Arab world, and of course, it has to lie to its own people lest they become disenchanted with the terror group. But the Lebanese can see the damage wrought by the IDF for themselves, and unless they are Hezbollah members or supporters, will likely spread the word of Hezbollah’s defeat. Thousands of missile hulks still in their smoldering launchers are hard to hide. Meanwhile, social media commentators in the Arab world have been having a field day ridiculing Nasrallah and Hezbollah for having claimed, among other feats, to have destroyed a chicken coop in Israel.

We will soon see if Hamas is moved to make a deal because the Hezbollah ally it was counting on to help distract the IDF from its operation in Gaza has been so soundly defeated, and — having declared its reprisal operation against Israel for the killing of Fuad Shukr to have been “successful” — has announced that it was not seeking to continue its attacks on Israel.