Now that the number of casualties in Gaza — as claimed by Hamas — has reached 40,000, many have begun to compare that figure to what has happened in other wars, accusing Israel of conducting one of the “bloodiest” in this century. Matthew Schultz thinks otherwise, and spells out his disagreement here: “40,000 dead in Gaza? That’s what the numbers really show,” by Matthew Schultz, Israel Hayom, August 15, 2024:
According to a new report in Haaretz by Nir Hasson, as the death toll in Gaza reaches 40,000, it’s time to face facts: “the numbers show” that the Gaza war is “one of the bloodiest in the 21st Century.”
For many who hear this claim, its veracity will seem obvious. For nearly a year, the world has been consumed by this war. There must be a reason. Surely the absolute numbers justify the riots, the self-immolations, and the accusations of that most vile crime against humanity – genocide.
But reading the report, one sees how quickly it disproves its own claims. Let’s look at the numbers, cited by Hasson himself:
In Syria, 405,000 dead.
In Iraq, 210,000 dead.
In Yugoslavia, 100,000 dead.
In Ukraine, 172,000 dead.
All of those numbers appear to be much higher than 40,000, so how is Haaretz claiming that this is one of the deadliest conflicts of the century? Well, they don’t go by absolute numbers. Instead, they go by pace and by percentage of population.
40,000 is 2% of Gaza’s population, and this number of fatalities has occurred in less than a year.
The Syrian war also claimed the lives of 2% of the population, but took 13 years.
The Iraq war claimed the lives of 1% of the population, but took 20 years.
The Ukraine war has only claimed the lives of .45% of the population, in 2.5 years.
This is not usually how we evaluate the size of a war. But it is how we evaluate the size of this war. In December, the Washington Post called the war “one of this century’s most destructive,” again citing pace rather than absolute numbers. It is as if these reporters are starting with the assumption that the Gaza war is the worst in recent history, and then working backwards to find out how.
But beyond this dishonest analysis, it’s unclear what exactly they are implying. Is a war that lasts decades better than one that lasts a year? Is it less “bloody” or “destructive”?
After all, everyone knows that the war in Gaza won’t last for two decades like America’s wars. Israel is already winding down in Gaza, and while Netanyahu and Gallant may bicker over the exact nature of the end, we all know that it’s going to end, and that the lion’s share of the IDF’s mission in Gaza is done. As for percentage, where did we get 2%?
40,000 is 2% of Gaza’s population, but there are also millions of Palestinians in the West Bank and as far as I know, every Palestinian from Gaza and the West Bank considers themselves to be a single people.
So yes, 2% of the residents of the region held by Hamas have died in this war. In fact, nearly half of them were Hamas themselves. But it’s not true that 2% of the Palestinian population has died. Far from it….
Of the 40,000 people in Gaza whom Hamas claims have died, the IDF says that at least 17,000 were members of Hamas. That leaves 23,000 “civilian” casualties. But the number of natural deaths in Gaza before the war was 800 a month, and assuming that the same rate obtained during the war, in the last 10 months, 8000 Gazans have died natural deaths (from diseases, accidents, and so on), which brings the number of Gazan civilians who have been killed as a result of the war is down to 15,000. That would mean that not 2%, but less than 1%, of the Gazan population were killed in the war.
And Schultz points out that the “Palestinian population” consists not only of 2 million Gazans, but also includes the 3 million Palestinians living in the West Bank. We can conclude, therefore, that the 15,000 civilian casualties out of a Palestinian population of five million is 0.3%.
And while the IDF has done everything it can to minimize civilian casualties, by an elaborate system that in the first five months of the war included dropping nine million leaflets, sending 16 million text messages, and making 15 million robocalls, to warn Gazans away from areas and buildings about to be targeted, Hamas does everything it can to maximize the number of civilians killed, because Hamas can only benefit from more civilian casualties.
The next time someone tells you that those “bloodthirsty” Israelis are committing “genocide” in Gaza, and that the IDF has already killed “40,000 women and children” and caused the “largest displacement” of people “in the region since 1948,” be ready with the correct number of civilians killed, the percentage of the total Palestinian population that number constitutes, and a list of the much greater displacements of people in wars around the region. And be ready to describe Israel’s elaborate system of warning civilians away from targeted buildings, and Hamas’ deliberate embedding of its fighters and weapons in civilian areas and buildings, including schools, mosques, and apartment houses. Don’t let the falsehoods stand.
Walter Sieruk says
It’s rather interesting that” “The Israel campaign In Gaza, despite contrary propaganda, has a very low ratio of civilian to combatant deaths compared with other urban counter- guerrilla warfare.” [1]
[1] THE EPOCH TIMES, August 7-13, 2024 A15
Walter Sieruk says
As for that bogus claim of Israeli genocide in Gaza, the reality that the actual , real, intention of Hamas is the genocide of the Jewish people that’s the goal of Hamas and not of those in power in the State of Israel regarding the “Palestine” people.
About innocent those children who died in Gaza because the jihadists Hamas hiding among places with children. Also this current war that Hamas started this with Israel on October 7th when it launched its brutal vicious and murderous and even vile and heinous jihadist attacks on the peaceful Jewish citizens of the State of Israel.
Those innocent children who died in Gaza because of Israel’s air force was not the intention of the government and military officials of Israel.
Those youngster who had been killed had died because those despicable jihadists of Hamas, because they are so very callous and cruel that they deliberately stationed their jihad strategy command and weapon centers at buildings that have children in and around those places.
Therefore the bloodguilt for the death of those children of Gaza on the wicked hands of the Hamas jihadists.
gravenimage says
Yes, Walter–this is all just projection.
Barbara says
I think the reason the Gaza war is so orobkematic is that people can’t flee for their lives. If Israel helped civilians escape and arranged emigration elsewhere with financial aud, probably public opinion would not be so harsh against Israel. I’m sure that various countries could be bribed to take a few in each city. However, they need to be scattered in obscure places with few Muslims. I have read that at least 30% of Palestinian adults want to emigrate, and that was 4 or 5 years ago. Israel needs to show more concern for their welfare. They are in a totalitarian Muslim society with constant indoctrination. Maybe if most of the peoole are resettled, opening businesses with grants and loans. The youth would get attached to the new country. However, they must not be put where they can riot.
Rarely says
“obscure places with few muslims”. Sorry Barbara there just aren’t any. Unless, of course, you mean Antarctica or Greenland. Where were you thinking of?
gravenimage says
Agreed, Rarely.
Then, Gaza has a border with Egypt as well as Israel. Gazans are not trapped there.
martin Leonard walden says
The way war works is that if somebody is trying to kill you, you put them on notice that you will kill his family. That is why, for example, the USA, China, Russia has nuclear ballistic missiles zeroed in on the major population areas of their would be enemies. Notice how in over seventy-five years no war or even terrorist acts with the Soviet Union or Russia, etc.
The USA despite spending near a trillion dollars a year on its military is so chicken it is afraid to take out a rag-tag band of Muslim Houthi terrorist firing missiles and pirating shipping in the Red Sea.
gravenimage says
The claim that there are no Jihad terror attacks in Russia is nisraken. Here is one from just yesterday:
“Russia: Islamic State jihadis take control of prison, cut guard’s throat, taunt Putin”
https://jihadwatch.org/2024/08/russia-islamic-state-jihadis-take-control-of-prison-cut-guards-throat-taunt-putin
“Russia: Islamic jihadis attack two churches and a synagogue in Dagestan, priest had throat slit”
https://jihadwatch.org/2024/06/russia-islamic-jihadis-attack-two-churches-and-a-synagogue-in-dagestan-priest-had-throat-slit
“Russia admits the involvement of ISIS for the first time in Moscow concert hall bombing, arrests 20”
https://jihadwatch.org/2024/05/russia-admits-the-involvement-of-isis-for-the-first-time-in-moscow-concert-hall-bombing-arrests-20
There are many more. Have you forgotten Beslan?
mgoldberg says
I hope that Israel will continue to hunt down and eviscerate all of the hamas battalians and leadership. Then I hope there are Nurember like trials of all the leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad who participated in these horrendous attacks upon Israel and let them be convicted to the gallows for teaching those babies for two generations to die for the glory of slaughtering Jews, for the holy act of slaughtering the Jews. And of course anyone who can be identified as having participated in the homiciding and slaughtering of those Jews in the Kibbuttzeem that were attacked on Oct 7th.
David says
A question? With all this modern satellite imagery and drones available, wouldn’t it be possible, to visibly verify and count 40K new, fresh graves in Gaza? 40K is a lot of dead people. Wouldn’t new graveyards be needed to hold all the bodies? Wouldn’t these new graveyards be visible from the air?
Huapakechi says
Do any of you actually believe the numbers of dead and wounded provided by hamas?
Taqiyyah: Basically, “ taqiyyah “ is the Islamic concept of the obligation to lie to any non-Muslim if that lie furthers the interests of Islam.
gravenimage says
The Casualties in Gaza: What the Numbers Show
………………………………
Not only do all too many uncritically accept Hamas’ unsubstantiated figures, burt–as noted–even these figures are low compared to other conflicts. In realitym Israel is doing everything possible to avoid injury to civilians–this despite Hamas using its own people as human shields.