Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Founder Explains That Iran is Not Ready for War With Israel

While the mad mullahs and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) generals bluster and utter their threats directed at the Jewish state, Mohsen Sazegara, of the founders of the IRGC in 1979, who for decades has lived in the West where he continues to follow closely the events in his country, explains that Iran is in no condition to go to war with Israel. More of his heartening revelations can be found here: “IRGC founder to ‘Post’: Iran unable to sustain long-term war with Israel – exclusive,” by Alex Winston, Jerusalem Post, August 20, 2024:

Iran is in no position to fight a long-term war with Israel and even asked the US to intervene to prevent a possible large-scale Israeli retaliation to any Iranian attack, according to Mohsen Sazegara, founder of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in an exclusive interview with The Jerusalem Post….

Speaking from the US, where he is now based after leaving Iran more than 20 years ago, Sazegara also touched upon internal conflicts within the Islamic Republic and the problems facing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“What Israel did, I mean the alleged assassination of [Hamas Chief] Ismail Haniyeh, in the heart of Tehran, in one of the most protected places, was a humiliation for the intelligence organizations of Iran,” Sazegara stated. “This has created a problem for Khamenei among his main powerbase – the intelligence services.”

The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, in his room in a heavily-guarded guesthouse in Tehran, from the explosion of a bomb that had been planted two months before, was a terrific humiliation for Iran’s security services. It was made even more humiliating because of the nearly simultaneous killing in south Beirut of Fuad Shukr, the military commander of Iran’s main proxy, Hezbollah. The killing of Haniyeh also evoked memories of Israel’s successful assassinations of five of Iran’s top nuclear scientists, including the overall head of Iran’s nuclear program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

After Haniyeh’s death, the Iranians promised to inflict a terrible vengeance on Israel. But almost a month has passed, and the Iranians have still done nothing. Meanwhile, Israel continues to hit Hezbollah’s weapons depots, filed with rockets supplied by Iran, at will. Iran. as Sazegara maintains, turns out to be not nearly as powerful as it pretends, and is not ready for war with the Jewish state.

“[Khamenei’s] first reaction was that we retaliate and don’t stop. But when he referred to his military commanders and the experts in the IRGC, and they should present the options of what to do, they told him that Iran is not in a position to fight Israel. They don’t have any strategic balance. They can send missiles toward Israel, especially hypersonic missiles that can reach Israel in six to eight minutes.‘ But when Israel retaliates, then we can’t defend the country, especially air defense,’ Khamenei’s commanders told him….

Khamenei wanted Iran to retaliate ferociously for Haniyeh’s death, but was brought up short by his own military commanders, who when asked to offer the options of various ways to attack the Jewish state, told him that Iran was not in a position to go to an all-out war against Israel. A handful of Iranian missiles, especially the hypersonic ones, would likely get through Iron Dome, but Iran, they explained to Khamenei, did not have a defense against a massive attack — with drones, bombs, rockets, and missiles — from the IDF. For Iran the results would be, as Washington has warned Iran, “cataclysmic.”

Sazegara was an insider, an official at the highest level of the Islamic Republic, who has in his American exile followed closely, through contacts with those who remain in Iran and share with him their own doubts about the regime’s ability to survive a massive attack by Israel.

According to Sazegara, despite Tehran’s public bravado, the Iranians feel trapped. They are publicly committed to attacking Israel in response to Haniyeh’s assassination, yet are afraid of any Israeli response. In secret, the Iranians have asked the Americans to convey to Israel the message that any Iranian attack will be so minor as not to cause any casualties — presumably it will land harmlessly in the Negev desert, so that Israel need not retaliate. No can do, the Americans replied. We can’t hold the Israelis back. And furthermore, the Americans warned Iran, the next response by Israel to any attack from Iran, whether there are casualties or not, is likely to be “cataclysmic.”