Iran Warns It Will Attack Israel in a ‘Definitive’ and ‘Calculated’ Manner

On the same day — August 25 — when Israel’s preemptive strike led to the destruction of 5,800 Hezbollah missiles in southern Lebanon, Abbas Aragchi, Iran’s foreign minister, announced that at a time of its choosing, Iran would retaliate against Israel for its killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh at a guesthouse in Tehran. And that attack will be, he warned, “definitive”and “calculated” — meaning, I presume, that it will be much larger even than the attack in April, when Iran launched 300 rockets and drones at Israel, and saw almost all of them intercepted. Or perhaps the word “definitive” means that the attack will put an end, once and for all, to the Jewish state. It’s hard to know exactly what Aragchi has in mind.

More on the threat by Foreign Minister Aragchi can be found here: “Iran’s Top Diplomat Vows ‘Definitive, Calculated’ Response to Killing of Hamas Chief Haniyeh,” Algemeiner, August 26, 2024:

Ismail Haniyeh was the leader of the terror group Hamas, and as such, an arch-terrorist ultimately responsible for the deaths of many Israeli civilians. What was an “unforgivable violation” of international norms was Iran’s support for such a creature.

Araghchi also warned that Iran is not afraid to increase tensions in the Middle East and that its response to Haniyeh’s death is “inevitable,” according to the statement….

Last week, the spokesperson for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an Iranian military force and internationally designated terrorist organization, revealed there could be a long wait.

“Time is in our favor, and the waiting period for this response could be long,” Alimohammad Naini said, according to Iranian state media. Naini added that “the enemy” should wait for a calculated response.

Araghchi’s comments came after Israel fighter jets early on Sunday destroyed thousands of rocket launchers belonging to the Iran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, after detecting an imminent attack on the Jewish state.

Hezbollah, which is Iran’s chief proxy force in the Middle East, subsequently fired more than 200 projectiles into Israel.

“What happened today is not the end of the story,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said of the preemptive strikes. [Hezbollah chief Hassan] Nasrallah in Beirut and [Iranian Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei in Tehran need to know that this is an additional step in changing the situation in the north and returning our residents securely to their homes.”

Netanyahu has let it be known that there will be more such preemptive attacks on Hezbollah in the future to “change the situation in the north” — that is, to put a stop to Hezbollah’s near-daily missile and drone attacks — so that 80,000 Israelis can return to their homes in the north.

Iran keeps offering excuses for its failure so far to carry through with its threats to attack Israel in a response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. It depicts this delay as reflecting its desire to prepare a “calculated response” — no hotheads need apply — but the more likely reason is that having made its threat against Israel, it now realizes that to carry out such an attack would be too dangerous.

First, Iran saw with what ease Israel managed to shoot down 300 missiles and drones in April, with no damage to the Jewish state. Second, it saw how Israeli missiles managed to penetrate deep into Iran’s airspace that same month and bomb an S-300 anti-missile system at Isfahan. Third, every day provides Iran with further evidence of the IDF’s superiority as a fighting force in Gaza, as it has now killed at least half of Hamas’ fighters — 17,000 — while losing to date only 340 soldiers. And fourth, in Israel’s preemptive strike on August 25 against Hezbollah, the IDF managed to destroy 5,800 of the 6,000 missiles that Hezbollah had been planning to launch against Israel. And not one of the 200-300 missiles that Hezbollah did manage to fire hit its primary targets, which were military bases and, especially, the headquarters of Unit 8200 at Glilot.

Iran knows that if it launches a major attack on Israel, it very likely will fail, given Israel’s robust three-layer anti-missile defense system. And Israel’s attack is likely to focus both on Iran’s nuclear facilities and on its vulnerable economy. The IDF could destroy the oil terminals at Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iran’s oil exports passes. It could also put out of commission the port of Bandar Abbas, where 70%of Iran’s trade passes through. Such attacks would send the already dismal economy into a tailspin, impoverishing more Iranians and perhaps leading to nationwide street protests that would be a real threat to the regime. Iran’s rulers do not want to take that chance, whatever their current bravado about a future attack, at a time of their choosing, on the Jewish state. The next Iran-Israel exchange will begin with a preemptive strike, I’m betting, not by Iran, but by Israel. And it will not be “calculated,” but rather, devastating.