A Devastating War with Israel Would Destroy What’s Left of Iran’s Economy

Mohsen Sazegara, of the founders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in 1979, explains that Iran is in no condition to go to war with Israel: “IRGC founder to ‘Post’: Iran unable to sustain long-term war with Israel – exclusive,” by Alex Winston, Jerusalem Post, August 20, 2024:

For Sazegara, Khamenei faces multiple challenges in considering any military action against Israel. First, a limited attack risks provoking a significant Israeli retaliation, which could lead to the defeat of Iran’s armed forces. Such a defeat could threaten Khamenei’s power, as historically, humiliated armed forces can often bite the hand that feeds them.

First, the Tehran regime is wildly unpopular, made ever more so by its murderous crackdown on girls and women for wearing their hijabs incorrectly, or not wearing them at all. Two years ago, 22-year-od Mahsa Amini was beaten to death by the police in a police station, where she had been taken for not wearing a hijab. Huge protests broke out across Iran; the protesters were more numerous than in the protests of 2007, 2016, and 2019. 476 Iranian protesters were killed across the country.

And the protests against the state, not just for its brutal, at times murderous,  enforcement of the hijab rules, but also for its massive corruption and mismanagement of the economy, have not ended, but violent repression by the regime in Tehran has muted their effect.

The most recent victim of the hijab-enforcers was Arezoo Badri, 31, whom police tried to pull over in July while she was driving in Nur, Iran after they had spotted her driving with an imperfectly tied hijab. The confrontation reportedly ended in the shooting of Badri, who died on the spot.

Secondly, Iran’s economy is fragile, struggling with issues like energy production, inflation, unemployment, and daily strikes. This economic instability further complicates the prospect of engaging in war….

Iran’s rial has collapsed in value. Many Iranians have seen their life savings evaporate as the local currency has depreciated. Today, the Iranian rial is worth about one-twentieth as much as it was in 2015, when Iran signed a nuclear accord with world powers. Since then, it’s gone from 32,000 to the dollar to hundreds of thousands of rials to the dollar. This is Weimar-level hyperinflation. Without Western technical aid, the Iranians have been unable to increase their oil production. Furthermore, the American-promoted boycott of Iranian oil has forced Iran to sell its oil at rock-bottom prices to China, which buys 80% of Iran’s total production. Frequent strikes by angry workers have led to uncertainties and slowdowns in manufacturing. In short, the economy is a mess, which hasn’t prevented the government from continuing to send money and expensive weapons to Hamas in Gaza, to the Houthis in Yemen, and to Hezbollah in Lebanon. That’s one of the reasons the protesters have since 2018 been shouting “Death to Palestine!” and “No to Gaza, no to Lebanon!” and “Leave Syria and think of us.” In other words, Iran’s regime should not be sending money to its proxies abroad, but keeping it home to help the people of Iran.

A devastating war, that would destroy what’s left of Iran’s economy, beginning but not ending with the destruction of the oil terminals on Kharg Island and the port at Bandar Abbas, would start nationwide protests that would be hard to put down. There is always the worry that the police and soldiers, who are also suffering financially from the mismanagement and corruption by the regime, might join the protesters — which is how the Shah fell in 1978. Does the regime want to risk its continued existence by attacking Israel and receiving a massive counter-blow that would not be a one-off, but the beginning of a guerre à outrance, with the IDF determined to end the Iranian threat once and for all, including attacks on the nuclear facilities underground at Fordow?

Of Iran’s three main proxies, Hamas in Gaza is on the ropes and simply trying to remain viable as it continues to be pounded by the IDF. The Houthis in Yemen are still smarting from Israel’s attack on their main port in Hodeidah, in response to a Houthi drone strike on Tel Aviv that killed one person and wounded four. They have been taught a lesson: fire on shipping in the Red Sea, but don’t attack Israel. Hezbollah keeps sending rockets into northern Israel, but most are intercepted by the Iron Dome. Furthermore, Israeli responses arealways much more damaging than the original attack by Hezbollah on Israel, and the IDF has understandably concentrated on whittling away the vast quantities of rockets and missiles that Iran has supplied to Hezbollah. But as loyal satraps of Tehran, both the Houthis and Hezbollah, will likely be willing, at Iran’s urging, to launch attacks on Israel that will deliberately avoid civilian casualties, and hope that at that point Israel will absorb those merely symbolic blows and offer only a mild response in return, letting Iran be satisfied as it proclaims that “something had been done to punish the Zionist entity” for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh.