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Iran is No Longer a Majority-Muslim Country

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An online survey about the religious beliefs of Iranians, with replies given anonymously so as to prevent any possible retribution, was conducted several years ago in the Islamic Republic.

In June 2020, our research institute, the Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in IRAN (GAMAAN), conducted an online survey with the collaboration of Ladan Boroumand, co-founder of the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran.

The results verify Iranian society’s unprecedented secularisation.

Iran’s census claims that 99.5% of the population are Muslim, a figure that hides the state’s active hostility toward irreligiosity, conversion, and unrecognised religious minorities.

Iranians live with an ever-present fear of retribution for speaking against the state. In Iran, one cannot simply call people or knock on doors seeking answers to politically sensitive questions. That’s why the anonymity of digital surveys offers an opportunity to capture what Iranians really think about religion.

Our results reveal dramatic changes in Iranian religiosity, with an increase in secularisation and a diversity of faiths and beliefs. Compared with Iran’s 99.5% census figure, we found that only 40% identified as Muslim.

So Iran, for the first time in more than 1,200 years, is no longer a majority-Muslim country. And just before the Islamic Revolution 80% of Iranians described themselves as very devout. That percentage has been slashed in half. But even among those 40%, who identify as Muslims, as we shall see, many are not Believers but only “cultural Muslims.”

In contrast with state propaganda that portrays Iran as a Shia nation, only 32% explicitly identified as such, while 5% said they were Sunni Muslim and 3% Sufi Muslim. Another 9% said they were atheists, along with 7% who prefer the label of spirituality. Among the other selected religions, 8% said they were Zoroastrians – which we interpret as a reflection of Persian nationalism and a desire for an alternative to Islam, rather than strict adherence to the Zoroastrian faith – while 1.5% said they were Christian.

The opinion takers’ observation that Zoroastrianism is adopted not so much because of the contents of the faith, but as a symbol of disaffection with Islam and of a desire to reclaim the quintessential Persian pre-Islamic faith, is convincing. Nationalism, not deep religious belief, surely explains the nearly 10% of Iranians who now identify with Zoroastrianism.

Most Iranians, 78%, believe in God, but only 37% believe in life after death and only 30% believe in heaven and hell.

In Iran, 22% of the people are now atheists. Worse still for the mullahs, while 40% of Iranians claim to be Muslims, only 30% believe in a central tenet of Islam – the existence of paradise and hell, which could be interpreted to mean that only 30% are true Muslims. The 10% who do not believe in heaven and hell, but claim to be Muslims, are not true Believers, but “cultural Muslims,” a category which has more to do with filial piety — the tug of affection for their devout parents, with fond memories of family iftar dinners, and the deep religiosity of other relatives or friends whom they cannot emulate but still respect. If so, then it would make sense to conclude that only 30% of Iranians are Muslim believers.

These numbers demonstrate that a general process of secularisation, known to encourage religious diversity, is taking place in Iran. An overwhelming majority, 90%, described themselves as hailing from believing or practising religious families. Yet 47% reported losing their religion in their lifetime, and 6% said they changed from one religious orientation to another. Younger people reported higher levels of irreligiosity and conversion to Christianity than older respondents….

Almost half of the children of devout parents in Iran report they have lost their religion. It’s not surprising, given how monstrous the theocracy has become. The Iranian clerics have done more to discredit Islam than any Infidel propaganda could possibly accomplish. They hang homosexuals from cranes, execute political dissenters on trumped-up charges (such as the wrestler Navid Afkari), murder inoffensive members of the Iranian emigration who had been opponents of the Shah (such as Shahpur Bakhtiar, killed in Paris by agents of the Islamic Republic), punish anyone who defends opposition figures (Nasrin Soutoudeh, a female lawyer, was sentenced to 38 years in prison).

The venality of the clerics is also well-known, and has contributed further to the disenchantment with Islam. A long investigation by Reuters revealed what many Iranians suspected. Their Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has amassed a business empire worth $95 billion, far more than the Shah of Iran’s fortune.

80% of Iranians were very devout before the Islamic Revolution, but there has been a drastic decline, with 60% now reporting that they do not perform the required daily prayers, nor observe Ramadan, meaning that 40%, at most, can still be considered devout.

We found that societal secularisation was also linked to a critical view of the religious governance system: 68% agreed that religious prescriptions should be excluded from legislation, even if believers hold a parliamentary majority, and 72% opposed the law mandating all women wear the hijab, the Islamic veil….

In other words, in a regime that is based on the idea of the Muslim jurist as ruler, and Islam as the only basis for legislation, now more than two-thirds of Iranians utterly reject that very idea: 68% say that religious commands (“prescriptions”) should be excluded as a basis for legislation.

Other research on population growth, whose decline has been linked to higher levels of secularisation, also suggests a decline in religiosity in Iran. In 2020, Iran recorded its lowest population growth, below 1%.

Is the steep decline in Iranian fertility rates not an oblique comment on younger Iranians’ disaffection with the clerical regime? Those who choose not to have children, or have fewer than the replacement level (2.1) are making a statement, signaling that they don’t have much faith in the country’s future. They see on the horizon only the continuation of religious despotism, with the mismanagement, corruption, cruelty, venality, and hypocrisy of the clerical rulers.

The Internet makes it almost impossible for the Iranian regime to prevent those they rule over from finding out what is going on in the world, including in Iran itself. The Iranians learn about American sanctions, about successful attacks on Iran’s nuclear project and other targets, find out about the catastrophic economic condition their country is in, discover the staggering net worth of their rulers – in short, the kind of news that once could be kept from being widely known, when the only sources of information were government-controlled newspapers, radio stations, and television networks. The Internet has made all of this information accessible with a few clicks.

When the Iranian regime finally collapses, we will be able see for ourselves what has been reported by the anonymous participants in these surveys. From 80% believers just before the Islamic Revolution, to 40% — or rather, 30% (with another 10% calling themselves only “cultural Muslims”) — today, its been a decline in belief unparalleled in Iranian, or Islamic, history. We have Ayatollahs Khomenei, and Khameini, and their equally cruel epigones, to thank for freeing so many Iranians — though it was hardly intended — from the mind-forged manacles of Islam. By their savage misrule they have accomplished what no collection of proselytizing Infidels could have managed to achieve. For this relief, ayatollahs, much thanks.

Comments

  1. As an Iranian I can vouch for this survey. At least where I live, people don’t care about religion. Mosques are always empty. Nobody fasts during Ramadan. Most of those who identify as muslims are more cultural muslims. Those cultural muslims do nothing except celebrating Islamic special occasions. But, the real motive behind celebrating those occasions is having access to a lot of free food. Most of them certainly don’t support our theocracy or any theocracy. You can’t see a lot of atheists in public because we don’t go out there and seek attention and force our way of life on everyone else unlike devout muslims. Moreover, religion is not a popular topic to discuss here. It is ethically a personal matter.

    • Sub bekhair from a Brit born in Masjid I Sulimain, deported at 6 months.
      I visited Iran in the 80s when patriotism protected the clergy.
      Several Sunni nations were indifferent to Islam in the 70s, 80s. No praying at work, eating covertly during Ramadan…
      But Saudi wahhabism replaced the anti-colonial, Egyptian creed of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Algerian Civil War of the 90s, may have turned the tide locally.

      • But Saudi Wahabism wouldn’t have affected Iran, which was a shi’a country. What the Wahabis exported was islam as endorsed by the Hanbali school of jurisprudence – something that was never followed in Iran. The shi’a revolution happened independent of the Wahabis: in fact, Saudi Arabia was on better terms w/ Pahlevi Iran than it was w/ the Khomenite regime

        It’s safe to say that the shi’a revolution was purely home grown, and backed by the communist Tudeh party, which wanted Iran to be either aligned to the Soviets, or a part of the Non Aligned group. That was what drove the opposition to the Shah. His regime was undermined by Americans who had no idea about the political establishment in any muslim society (hint: they could never be permanently democratic, b’cos islam would have trumped that), an ignorance that we saw over the last 23 years

        Even a future post-islamic regime will have to retain a strong hold on power, otherwise it will disintegrate like the Afghan government did once our troops left

    • Had the CIA not involved itself with Iran, how would Iran’s government have changed?
      I worked with a man from Iran pre and during overthrowing the Shah. He could never go back he would have been executed. His entire family left Iran. His mother could no longer teach at an all-girls school.

  2. If it is true, then how come the islamists are still in power? I believe the sample is not a real representation of the population, a lot of muslims avoid the internet for fear they become apostate. And also, muslim minority can be dominant because of their aggresiveness while the non muslims tend to be selfish and coward.

    • I think they would have toppled by now had Trump been re-elected. Instead, Biden lifting those sanctions enriched them, and gave them a fresh leash to torture their populace. Hopefully, we’ll see it fall during the next 4 years

      • The Iranian people rose up after Obama was elected, but he turned his back on the demonstrators and the movement was harshly put down.

    • ‘If it is true, then how come the Islamists are still in power?’

      Probably for the same reasons that Americans have not openly revoted against our criminal overlords – unless and until people are forced into a corner, we are loath to start a true insurrection, and we are not at that point…yet. Most people just want to be left alone to live their lives, and until the state messes with a family’s “rice bowl’’ people will not stand up to overthrow their rulers
      The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut down.

  4. There never was any real evidence that Islam was “the fastest-growing religion”, when all the evidence was saying otherwise. I can understand why supremacist Islamists would want to propagate this myth, but I never understood why non-muslims, with notable exceptions like David Wood, never challenged it, and even went along with it.
    We now know that the “fastest-growing religion” has lost control not just of Iran, but also Albania:

    https://www.turkiyetoday.com/world/albanias-muslim-population-drops-below-50-for-first-time-in-centuries-24897/

    And both in just one generation!

    What we are witnessing is nothing less than the initial stages of Islam’s collapse, as predicted by Muhammad himself:

    In a number of sahih hadith, Muhammad predicted that Islam would go back to where it started:

    Allah’s Apostle said, “Verily, Belief returns and goes back to Medina as a snake returns and goes back to its hole (when in danger).” (Bukhari Volume 3. Book 30. Number 100)

    Islam was initiated as something strange, and it would revert to its (old position) of being strange, and it would concentrate between the two mosques.
    It is narrated on the authority of Ibn ‘Umar (‘Abdullah b. ‘Umar) that the Messenger of Allah (may peace be upon him) observed: Verily Islam started as something strange and it would again revert (to its old position) of being strange just as it started, and it would recede between the two mosques just as the serpent crawls back into its hole. (Sahih Muslim Book 1, Hadith Number 271.)

    He also reported God’s messenger as saying, “Islam began as a small religion and will return to the state in which it began. Then blessed will be the few [who hold to it]’ (Mishkat al-Masabih 159 Book 1, Hadith 152).

    Which muslim-majority country will be next? Answers on a postcard………

  5. If it is true, then good for the Iranians. The headline I would love to see is that Muslims are leaving islam, the evil, hate-filled load of barbaric bullshit that it is, in massive numbers in all Muslim countries. islam is fit only for unevolved knuckle draggers, not for enlightened human beings. 1400 years of the evil bullshit is more than enough and it has dragged many human beings back into an inhuman, primitive way of life. It is always a good thing to hear that people are ditching this filthy garbage.

  6. Iran is No Longer a Majority-Muslim Country
    ………………………………………..

    I’ve heard this before–*very* exciting.

    • No, Zoroastrian. Bahaii still has a place of honor for Muhammad, & regards the quran as one of the holy books. Essentially, they preach “islam-without-the-jihad”

  8.  Islam ( submission)will collapse ,like USSR in 1989,if we DENOUNCE PSEUDO PROPHET MUHAMMAD,who according to his biography( Sira) and traditions( Hadith) was a pedophile( wife Aisha was 9 yo), rapist, murderer, bandit (keeping20% of the booty for himself),liar and sex-slave trader and also LIBERATE THE MUSLIM WOMEN from barbaric Sharia Law.The Koran states women are dumb, less intelligent than men,wives must be beaten for disobedience by their hudbands ,all women will go to hell unless in the last day their husband says he was pleased with her and all women must hide their curves and wear burkas ,so that men will not be aroused to rape them.Islam is a misogynistic ,violent , imperialist political ideology of Arab male supremacy ISLAMOFASCISM(~70%), DISGUISED AS A RELIGION(~ 30%) that strives through violent Jihad and soft cultural Jihad of immigration ( dawa)to subjugate the World.Jihadists are promised, if killed battling infidels-kafirs,) they will go to Paradise to enjoy 72 virgins ,taking along 70 of their relatives regardless of their sins!Withdraw from UN MIGRANT COMPACT ,that falsely claims immigration is a Human Right expecting Western countries to accept and provide for an endless number of muslim illegal immigrants ,thus islamizing them. Muslim “refugees “should stay in Turkey or vast rich Saudi Arabia ,until they can return to their countries.We must denounce islamic Sharia (=way)law of blasphemer,apostate ,homosexual , adulterer and hypocrite executions,misogyny,honor killings by stoning,hand amputations for theft,child brides,girls exclusion from schools,halal meat from tortured animals,clitorectomies,circumcisions,subjugation and segregation of women,burkas and Sharia banning of short skirts,bikinis,dancing,singing,painting ,sculptures of people,dogs,pork,alcohol and beauty contests .Demand gender equality for ALL muslim women.Punish severely those that kill apostates from Islam,blasphemers,adulterers or muslim hypocrites.Islam is incompatible with our freedom of speech, gender equality, values,way of life, Human Rights.

  9. In Iran, maybe.
    In the UK Islam is not in decline. It expands its influence.

    • Only due to unlimited muslim migration. It’s not like native Brits are flocking to islam independently irrespective of these invaders. Get rid of them, and the practice of islam in UK will collapse

      • First the British have to admit to the invasion of Islam into their country. Until they start to fight back Islam will expand.
        They have to stop punishing those who stand up to Islam. Stop being cowed about being name called Islamophobia.
        They have to demand the Muslim males be charged with raping the British women. Looking the other way encourage more and more outrageous behavior.
        They need to insist ALL people living in Britian live according to British law, no exceptions.

  10. What amuses me is if Islamic governments kill or imprison certain people for their CONSENSUAL sexual activities while the Ayatollahs engage in thighing with 4 yr old girls, how sick AND PERVERSE can they get. Iran must be an embarrassment to the Muslim world ? No wonder due to the Ayatollah’s behaviour , requirements and dictats, Islam is falling in numbers, especially when they learn what the rest of the world is like

  11. Yeah, JihadWatch too covered this survey in September 2020

    https://jihadwatch.org/2020/09/new-survey-only-40-of-iranians-identify-as-muslim-72-disagree-with-mandatory-hijab-wearing

    One thing I noticed was that while the shi’a population had declined, probably since that’s the regime’s chosen brand of islam, sunnis remain where they were – ~ 5%, while some people have gone to Sufi/mysticism, thinking that that is more benign than Twelver. It’s not: all of them advocate jihad

    Another thing is that the huge Atheist/Agnostic populations – welcome as they are – are unstable in numbers. Reason being once there comes a time in life when people look for more meaning, they tend to revert to their original faiths – be it Christianity in the West, Hinduism in India or islam in Muslim countries. About the last, we saw an attempt at it in the 90s in the -stans, but thankfully, Soviet-era regimes in Tashkent, Astana, Dushanbe et al cracked down hard on such attempts, so that these countries today are still safe for non-muslims, be it Russian or Western visitors

    Anyway, given that, I do hope that Zoroastrianism makes a big enough comeback to be the majority faith in Iran. Yeah, they can be relaxed about how they enforce certain aspects, or what they wanna modernize, but that should be the faith that takes over. If it’s anything else – Christianity, for instance, there will be an undercurrent that it’s not born in Iran the way both Zoroastrianism and Twelver islam was

    Finally, I do hope that a day comes when Afghans decide to revert to Buddhism or Sikhism after they’re sick of the Taliban

    • “Atheist/Agnostic populations – welcome as they are – are unstable in numbers. Reason being once there comes a time in life when people look for more meaning, they tend to revert to their original faiths”

      Not true. Evidence please?

    • What would happen if somehow Iran did overthrow the muslim government. Would other muslim terrorists invade Iran and then the civil war.

      • Yes to both. I speculated on that in the last thread. Turkey definitely would interfere, just like it did against the Kurds in Iraq and Syria

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