Was it an assassination or an accident?
Was the helicopter crash that killed Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi an assassination or an accident?
Considering current events, people will be tempted to call it an assassination and that certainly can’t be ruled out. But Israel has previously targeted imminent threats, IRGC terror operatives and scientists working on weapons research. Hitting top political figures appears unlikely. And politically inconvenient.
Raisi headed a faction that was more aggressive, but also less prone to playing diplomatic games with D.C. If the Iranian government undergoes a change, it may produce a leadership that will at least pretend to negotiate with the Biden administration while building up its nuclear weapons program. And I doubt Israel prefers that.
The CIA and the Biden administration? They couldn’t figure out how to change a lightbulb let alone have the guts and the know-how to pull something like this off.
If it’s an assassination, the likeliest suspects would be within Iran’s own political snakepit where the stakes are high and the players are ruthless. Raisi was potentially in line to become the Supreme Leader and he’d been playing hardball with members of another faction. It’s not impossible that it escalated, but also out of character. Iran’s political players usually denounce and destroy each other using the system.
The last year has been unprecedented, but Occam’s Razor still holds.
If you’re flying in a chopper that predates the Iranian revolution (and whose only parts can be obtained on the black market or from Chinese ripoff artists) into heavy fog along mountainous terrain, the likeliest explanation for a crash is not an international conspiracy.
Ray Jarman says
This must have been an act of pure stupidity on the part of the pilot. He should have known better than to fly into an area that heave fog borders the mountains. On more than one occasion, I have been in a chopper heading to a location in Iraq where the pilot would fly very close and then do a one eighty and return the departure point.
Since the Ayatollah basically chooses who shall be the president, there would be no need for an assignation and since the pilot took no preparations to avoid death, this appears to be a simple act of stupidity.
Emilie Green says
“What Does the Iranian President’s Death Mean?”
Only that the mullahs will be slightly inconvenienced in finding & installing another Muslim murderer in Raisi’s place.
David A Grisez says
The death of Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi means that tragically for Iran, nothing will change. This is because there is a group of powerful ayatollahs and mullahs that rule the nation of Iran. They will just pick one of their own to put in the position of president of Iran. The only thing that can change this would be an overthrow of the powerful ayatollah and mullah leadership of Iran. Former President Donald Trump started a set of sanctions against Iran that if given sufficient time would have caused this leadership of Iran to collapse. However Joe Biden lifted all those sanctions and gave money and support to this Islamic leadership of Iran. Thus Joe Biden helped prop up this evil leadership of Iran.
PMK says
Most likely an accident, but what were they doing flying in a chopper in conditions that would ground such flights in other countries? A chopper? No planes were available? The search teams were flying in ‘blizzard conditions’. Does no one check the weather reports in Iran or Azerbaijan?
The best conspiracy theory I could come up with was that Iranian resistance members might have been on the maintenance team and deliberately sabotaged the chopper.
Ben says
RIP to the helicopter. Raisi’s now in hell together with his fake prophet muhammad
somehistory says
It messes with the evil mind of the ak in charge. He was said to be training this now-dead ghoul to take his place soon and keep things going in the most evil direction.
But as the Bible book written by wise King Solomon makes clear, “Time and unforeseen occurrence befall us all.”
Accidents happen. A lot of times, really wonderful, good, kind, nice people are killed as a result of faulty/worn parts, weather conditions, driver/pilot error.
This time, a ghoul and his cohorts went for the long dirt nap. But, it won’t keep the ghouls of iran and their fans, from blaming someone.
Hoi Polloi says
Have you seen this? It’s a good one:
“Satan Asks Democrats To Tone Down All The Evil” – The Babylon Bee
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnN1a8nNCwA
somehistory says
I hadn’t seen it, but just watched it. It is really good. thanks for the link.
James Lincoln says
Hoi Polloi,
Thanks for the link.
Not really that far from reality…
Hoi Polloi says
Yw. Yes; unfortunately, it’s pretty close to where we now are.
Walter Sieruk says
To answer the question posed in the title of this article . That means that Rasis is now dead and therefore this brutal cruel oppressive tyrant is now death ,and good riddance to bad rubbish.”, This much should be obvious.
Nevertheless, that this the death of that dictator doesn’t mean the death of that hostile tyrannical Islamic regime of Iran.
Furthermore , about that Islamic tyranny of Iran ,this is a fitting time to remember that the official title of “The Islamic Republic of Iran” and also about the chief and head Imam, Ayatollah Khomeini, who had a strong hand in establishing this so called “Republic “
The Islamic Republic of Iran is an actual oppressive tyranny in every sense of the word. It even puts women under extreme physical and life threating duress to force them wear the hijab.
This should serve as a reminder the very actual essence of that Islamic tyranny, Ayatollah Khomeini had made in known that “The Islamic Republic of Iran would be Islamic and nothing but .He declared ‘What the nation wants is an Islamic Republic . Not just a Republic, not a democratic Republic, not a democratic Islamic Republic. Do not use the word “democratic” to describe it. That is the Western style. ” [1]
[1]`THE HISTORY OF JIHAD by Robert Spencer, page 318.
Rarely says
Hopefully his replacement won’t be worse.
Westman says
I’m betting the IRGC tries a takeover, realizing this is its chance because of the unpopularity of the murderous Mullahs. Remember when the military ruled Pakistan?
The IRGC is in a position to soften or control the religious hardliners while cementing the military hardline. Khamenei should be considering retirement.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Good analysis of whodoneit, Daniel! I tend to agree w/ you and the Occam’s Razor explanation: an old ? finally getting totaled, and taking its passengers w/ it
One thing though: much as we all may loathe the Iranian regime, I’m not sure I’m ready for it to collapse. B’cos as we all know, nature abhors a vacuum, and in the event of a regime collapse, what will happen will likely be chaos, and Iran’s wolverine neighbors probably would try to take advantage, making Iran a battlefield like it was for much of medieval Iranian history
➤ Turkey, which already cherishes all Turkic empires, from the Qaraqhanids to the Mughals to the Ottomans, and which has been helping Azerbaijan pummel Armenia, is most likely to want to conquer Iran, like it was a part of the Seljuq empire, the empire that first established Turks in Anatolia. If Armenia is a part of Erdogan’s revanchalist ambitions, Iran would be even more so, since it was a part of multiple Turkic empires – Ghaznavid, Seljuq and Khwarezmid
➤ Azerbaijan, which Israel considers an ally, is considered that b’cos it has designs on Iran. Iran has a northwest province by the same name, capital Tabriz, which was historically where the Safavid empire emerged from. Azerbaijan doesn’t like the fact that there is a Azeri territory outside its country & would want to take it back. It can’t beat Iran in a war now, but if there was chaos throughout Iran, it possibly could
➤ Iraq, which has its own shi’a militias like the Mahdi Army, Badr Brigades & Kataeb Hizbullah, might allow them to intervene in Iran so that they stop causing trouble back home. Hizbullah too might join, although I’ve heard that Hizbullah itself is the party that props up the Iranian regime, not vice versa
➤ Taliban – we read last year how Iran and Taliban have a border dispute over water rights. This would be their best opportunity to attack Khorasan and seize whatever they think they need
➤ Pakistan – they’re already fighting the Balochis, and if Iran’s regime collapses, they’d probably think they’d need to attack Iran’s Balochis as well so that the 2 Balochi groups can’t then combine against Pakistan
So yeah, while on one hand I’d love to see Iran’s regime fall, that old cliche still applies: be careful of what you wish for: you may get it!
Walter Sieruk says
That tyrant, Rasis was horrendously evil and oppressive, In that Islamic regime the next fiendish villain who will take place ,as President, will likewise a very dictator who horrifically evil and oppressive.
That horrendously brutal, cruel hideously malicious and murderous Islamic regime of Iran, denies the Iranian, people their basic natural human rights.
Therefore, the Iranian people are right and righteous by engaging in bitter and strong protests against those cruel malicious and murderous tyrants in power of that cruel and oppressive Sharia based dictatorship of that Islamic regime of Iran.
In addition, some of the people who trapped in and forced to exist in the Islamic dictatorship of Iran might not know about the intellect philosopher John Locke, but his ideas do apply to them. For Mr. Locke taught that any good government has the duty to ensure the security and safety of its citizens. Yet when a tyranny is the people in the tyrannical government do have every natural and ethical right to overthrow that terrible and oppressive tyranny/ government.