John Spencer, Professor at West Point, Explains What the IDF Has Achieved in Gaza

As Israel’s action in Rafah begins, it is important to recall some facts. Too many people, deluged by photos on the nightly news, or on social media, of streets full of collapsed buildings and crying children in Gaza, and Hamas-generated tales of woe, have turned away from their previous support of Israel, convinced as they now are of the IDF’s indifference to civilian safety, or still worse, they have even come to believe, without the slightest evidence, that Israel is committing “genocide.” That’s what Francesca Albanese, the UN Special Rapporteur for the Occupied Palestinian Territories, tells them. Why would she lie?

John Spencer is a 25-year veteran of the U.S. army, and now is a professor of urban warfare at West Point, who has been studying the Israeli military’s performance, especially during its current war in Gaza that has raged since October 7. He discusses how the IDF is executing this war, in striving always to warn civilians away from places about to be targeted, even when those warnings remove the element of surprise, which often is the critical element in a military attack. We have seen this yet again in the beginning of the Rafah operation. More on Spencer’s view, that Israel has “created a new standard for urban warfare,” can be found here: “Israel Has Created a New Standard for Urban Warfare. Why Will No One Admit It? | Opinion,” by John Spencer, Newsweek, March 25, 2024:

The predominant Western theory of executing wars, called maneuver warfare, seeks to shatter an enemy morally and physically with surprising, overwhelming force and speed, striking at the political and military centers of gravity so that the enemy is destroyed or surrenders quickly. This was the case in the invasions of Panama in 1989, Afghanistan in 2001, Iraq in 2003 and the failed illegal attempt by Russia to take Ukraine in 2022. In all these cases, no warning or time was given to evacuate cities.

In many ways, Israel has had to abandon this established playbook in order to prevent civilian harm. The IDF has telegraphed almost every move ahead of time so civilians can relocate, nearly always ceding the element of surprise. This has allowed Hamas to reposition its senior leaders (and the Israel hostages) as needed through the dense urban terrain of Gaza and the miles of underground tunnels it’s built.

Hamas fighters, who unlike the IDF don’t wear uniforms, have also taken the opportunity to blend into civilian populations as they evacuate. The net effect is that Hamas succeeds in its strategy of creating Palestinian suffering and images of destruction to build international pressure on Israel to stop its operations, therefore ensuring Hamas’ survival.

Israel gave warning, in some cases for weeks, for civilians to evacuate the major urban areas of northern Gaza before it launched its ground campaign in the fall. The IDF reported dropping over 7 million flyers, but it also deployed technologies never used anywhere in the world, as I witnessed firsthand on a recent trip to Gaza and southern Israel.

In the months that followed the campaign in northern Gaza, the IDF has dropped another seven million leaflets in and around Khan Younis, warning civilians that the area would soon be under attack and they should move further south to Rafah, which nearly one million people did.

Israel has made over 70,000 direct phones calls, sent over 13 million text messages and left over 15 million pre-recorded voicemails to notify civilians that they should leave combat areas, where they should go, and what route they should take. They deployed drones with speakers and dropped giant speakers by parachute that began broadcasting for civilians to leave combat areas once they hit the ground. They announced and conducted daily pauses of all operations to allow any civilians left in combat areas to evacuate.

These drones with speakers attached are a new method of disseminating warnings; even more startling are the giant speakers, dropped by parachutes, that begin “speaking” their warnings as soon as they hit the ground — a remarkable innovation that Israeli technologists came up with to do something no other army has done — warning the enemy combatants, along with civilians, of places and buildings where attacks by the IDF are soon to be launched. No other army in the world warns enemy soldiers about attacks in this manner. No other army is so solicitous of the wellbeing of civilians in the enemy camp.