Seth Mandel discusses the escalating Houthi threat to the world economy here: “Biden Has No Choice But To Stop the Houthis,” by Seth Mandel, Commentary, December 20, 2023:
Other costs also get passed on to consumers: The alternate route for these ships runs around Africa, adding time and fuel to every trip. If the problem persists, the Times says, economic forecasters expect the price of oil to increase by as much as $4 a barrel. Insurance rates will also rise with either the increased danger of the normal trip or the extended time frame of the alternate route….
By adding about $4 to the price of a barrel of oil, because of the increase in both time and fuel that the new route around Africa will require, the Houthis are suppressing oil demand, which damages Saudi Arabia and other OPEC producers. Riyadh has a major stake in ending the Houthis’ attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, and perhaps it will be more inclined to give the Houthis what they now want in Yemen, which is recognition of their autonomy in the northwest part of the country. If the Houthis are not stopped, Iran will be the real winner.
Now that the Houthis are the de facto government in a large part of Yemen, they become responsible for a large civilian population. That means providing public services, paying salaries of civil servants who have not been paid in months, and in general, discharging the responsibilities of rule. For that they need to be secure at home, and Allied airstrikes on the Houthi bases in Yemen will prevent that. They are, then, most vulnerable to a show of force by the Americans and their allies.
Yet the Biden administration has, bizarrely, resisted taking the most obvious and cost-free step: putting the Houthis back on the list of foreign terrorist organizations. When Secretary of State Antony Blinken removed them in 2021, he employed a neat trick: The U.S., he said, was delisting the Houthis because it would help in “alleviating the humanitarian situation” in Yemen. And if the Houthis were removed from the list not because they stopped being terrorists, then the administration could resist re-listing them even when their terrorism increased.
Well, those chickens have come home to roost, haven’t they? Give terrorists the kid-glove treatment and you get more terrorism. The administration needs to put the Houthis back on that list,annd follow that up by striking strategic points in Yemen to hobble the Houthis’ ability to choke shipping lanes. By some accounts, U.S. forces will soon be in a position to do exactly that. The Houthis will call Biden’s bluff.The president should make it abundantly clear that America isn’t bluffing at all.
The Houthis will keep on attacking both commercial shipping, until it comes to a complete halt in the Red Sea, and US and other NATO warships in the area. So far, the Americans have been content to shoot down Houthi drones. That’s clearly not enough, because the Houthis are undeterred and keep launching their drones. Consequently, merchant shipping has come to a standstill in the Red Sea. The American government should declare the Houthis to be a terrorist organization, and then go on the offense, striking Houthi assets — both men and weapons — in Yemen. The US now has many ships in the area, and hundreds of planes on those ships. In the Red Sea, it has the guided-missile destroyer the USS Carney, that shot down 14 Houthi drones just the other day. In the eastern Mediterranean, off the coast of Lebanon, it has the aircraft carrier U.S.S. Ford, along with the cruiser Normandy. The 5th Fleet is currently deployed in the Persian Gulf, headquartered in Bahrain, and its naval forces include two carriers, 20 ships, and 103 strike aircraft, and approximately 20,000 sailors and marines. Between its ships in the Red Sea, in the Persian Gulf, and in the eastern Mediterranean, the American Navy has hundreds of planes available to attack the Houthis and their weapons storehouses, reopen the Red Sea to international shipping and thereby remove what is now at burden on the world economy, relieve Israel of having to worry about its shipping lifeline to Asia as it deals with Hamas in Gaza, and signal to the Iranians that their proxies are not safe and neither, it should be understood, are the Houthis’ puppet-masters in Tehran.
Ian Senior says
The Houthis have some inexpensive rockets which do serious damage.
Think they need to teach us how to produce inexpensive rockets rather than for us to be firing a multi million dollar rocket to hit a lone target drone or whatever.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Well, the Saudis were at constant war w/ the Houthis, & it only got them international opprobrium, including from the likes of the Rand Pauls, the Tulsi Gabbards and the Tucker Carlsons of the world. Plus the Bidens chose to publicly humiliate them. So they started drifting towards Beijing, stopped locking the ? as the world’s reserve currency (they started accepting Renminbi for payments from Beijing) and under their auspices, signed a treaty ending their hostility w/ Iran
So now, the Houthis are no longer at war w/ the Saudis, and their attacks on Red Sea shipping incidentally helps the Saudis, particularly given the recent G20 agreement to have a land bridge from Dubai to Haifa via Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel (it’ll be interesting to see if Jordan can be a part of it, given how restive it has been against Israel of late: if not, the rail might run via Neom to Eilat, and then through Israeli territory). So not only are the Saudis not hurt – even Israel is not hurt: the only country hurt is Egypt, since the Suez canal is rendered worthless
If shipping is essential, one thing that both Saudi Arabia and Israel can try do is construct a canal from Dhahran to Eilat, and then again from Eilat to Tel Aviv. I daresay it may even be a shorter distance than going around Yemen, & being subject to attacks from both Yemen and Somalia. In other words, the cost of such a project would quickly be recouped. If the Straits of Hormuz are unsafe, maybe make that canal from Muscat to Neom, and then continue through Israel
James Lincoln says
Infidel,
A canal from Dhahran to Eilat, and then again from Eilat to Tel Aviv is about 1,426 miles.
This would be quite an undertaking, as the Panama Canal is only around 51 miles.
James Lincoln says
The distances were by vehicle.
Somewhat shorter as the crow flies…
Barry says
There is another possibility; at present the route through the Arctic is open so I have read. It might need improving but ice breakers may be a possible opener.