Notes On The War #2 

#1. “US, UK, French and German leaders to meet on keeping war from snowballing,” AFP, October 9, 2023:

What does this mean? At best, it means that the four main Western powers, all of whose leaders have said that they “stand by Israel,” will work to keep Hezbollah and its backer Iran from opening up a northern front against Israel. They could, for example, ask the UN to greatly increase the number of peacekeepers in southern Lebanon, to act as a buffer between Hezbollah and the IDF. At worst, it means that they will try to prevent a “conflagration” (but that conflagration has already started; it started when Hamas invaded Israel on Oct. 7) by pressuring Israel to end its war in Gaza before it has had a chance to completely crush Hamas. That, of course, would be terrible, both for Israel and for the free world, including the United States, Britain, France, and Germany.

#2. On many news shows, “Middle East experts” are being asked to explain “what caused Hamas to attack Israel at this point.” Some of them solemnly declare that Hamas had no choice, that Gaza is an “open-air prison” where people live in wretched conditions and, having nothing to lose, wanted to bring their immiseration to the world’s attention. A moment’s thought would have led one to realize that first, Gazans can leave Gaza via the Rafah Crossing into Egypt, to then go anywhere that will take them in. Between 150,000 and 250,000 young people have left Gaza in the last decade; second, Israel has offered to help with the expenses of Gazans who choose to emigrate. Gaza is not a prison. No one is being forced to live there.

During this past year Israel, in order to help Gaza economically, agreed to increase the number of work permits it makes available to them, so that now close to 20,000 Gazans can work in Israel, receiving wages that are many times what they would earn in Gaza itself.

Several “Middle East experts” whom I listened to on the radio said that Hamas had been “elected” to govern Gaza, but they failed to add that it has not held an election since that first one in 2006, and it rules the Strip with an iron fist, arresting, imprisoning, and even killing, any who disapprove of its policies. No one mentioned the colossal corruption in Gaza, and the five billion dollars that just two Hamas leaders, Khaled Meshaal and Mousa Abu Marzouk, have stolen from the foreign aid meant for the people of Gaza. A brutal despotism that cannot be dislodged, along with the massive corruption that characterizes Hamas’ rule, are what explain the misery of Gazans far more than anything Israel has done.

#3. For months we have been hearing about the irreparable damage done to social cohesion in Israel by the furor over judicial reform. We were told that the military itself has suffered, with tens of thousands of reservists vowing not to serve. But just now Israelis have proved those dire predictions wrong. 300,000 reservists — men and women — were called up, and within 48 hours, all 300,000 reservists appeared for duty. It was the fastest call-up in Israel’s history. There will be time — later — to argue over judicial reform. But not now. Now is the time for Israel to crush Hamas so that it cannot reconstitute itself as a military force for many years, if ever. As the IDF’s head, Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi, said on Oct. 9, “It began badly for us. It will end badly for them.”

#4. The EU has now called a halt to all of its aid to the Palestinians, save for that deemed to be “humanitarian,” according to Olivér Várhelyi, the EU commissioner for neighboring countries. More on this decision can be found here.

“The scale of terror and brutality against Israel and its people is a turning point. There can be no business as usual,” Várhelyi wrote on the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter. “All payments [are] immediately suspended. All projects put under review. All new budget proposals, including for 2023 [are] postponed until further notice,” said Várhelyi. “Incitement to hatred, violence and glorification of terror have poisoned the minds of too many,” he added. “We need action and we need it now.” Várhelyi’s statement was in reference to €691mn in development aid to the Palestinian territories. It came after the German government earlier on Monday said it would halt bilateral assistance worth €125mn, pending a “comprehensive” examination into how such aid was being used. Austrian aid worth €19mn has also been stopped.

While it is too bad that Várhelyi, under pressure from Spain, Luxembourg, and Ireland, having first declared a halt to all aid, then — under pressure from Spain, Luxembourg, and Ireland — decided to reinstate “humanitarian aid,” it is still a remarkable decision from an organization that has long been a financial supporter of the Palestinians. The carnage carried out by Hamas on October 7 has been too much for the EU to stomach. And note that in halting aid, the EU has not distinguished between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, but chose instead to halt aid to all Palestinians. This must surely alarm Mahmoud Abbas and his associates. But what did they expect? Instead of denouncing the Hamas atrocities, which could have kept aid money flowing to the PA, Abbas on October 7 declared that the Palestinians — referring to Hamas — “had a right to defend themselves.” No one in the West would describe that surprise attack as a defensive act. Had Abbas been cleverer, he would have criticized, albeit mildly, Hamas, in order to keep Western aid money flowing to the PA. He might have said, for example, that “I understand the frustration of people fighting this terrible occupation but it’s never right to take women and children hostage.” He could have said something, anything, no matter how false it might be, in order to distance the PA from Hamas. But he didn’t. And now, the PA will suffer in the only way that counts for Mahmoud Abbas — in its pocketbook.