Hezbollah-Linked Cleric: War With Israel Will Be Good For Lebanon 

From the annals of geopolitical idiocy: a Hezbollah-linked cleric, Sheikh Saiq al-Nabulsi, now claims that war with the Zionist enemy will be good for everything that ails Lebanon. He has, of course, taken leave of its senses. More on this prescription for a Hezbollah disaster can be found here: “Hezbollah-affiliated cleric: War with Israel can bring Lebanon out of crisis,” by Tzvi Joffre, Jerusalem Post, July 21, 2023:

Hezbollah-affiliated cleric Sheikh Sadiq al-Nabulsi stated that a war with Israel could “deliver” Lebanon from its ongoing political and economic crisis in an interview with the Lebanese Al-Jadeed TV earlier this month, according to a translation published by MEMRI. 

“The existence of Israel is an act of war against us. It is not Hezbollah that is instigating war. You spoke earlier about the firing of rockets, and so on. The very existence of Israel is an aggression against Lebanon,” said Nabulsi. “A war with Israel can deliver us from our crisis. Some people may ask how a war with Israel may bring us out of this crisis.” 

Lebanon is suffering both from political paralysis – it has been without a president for many months – and an economic collapse without precedent, with the Lebanese pound having lost 98% of its value in two years.

The cleric pointed to the ongoing stalemate in attempts in Lebanon to elect a president, stating the “If despite the dialogue and the various understandings and initiatives, we are unable to reach a formula for electing a president, war could turn out to be the best way to change the equation.” 

Nabulsi noted that “War is essentially a political act that seeks to change the balance of power, right?” 

 Obviously al-Nabulsi has forgotten how Israel thrashed Hezbollah in the war fought between them in 2006, leaving more than 1,200 of its fighters dead, and many more wounded, its weapons caches blown up, its network of tunnels destroyed, its command and control centers pulverized. Israel attacked both Hezbollah military targets and Lebanese civilian infrastructure, including Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport. The IDF launched a ground invasion of Southern Lebanon. Israel also imposed an air and naval blockade. The war severely damaged Lebanese infrastructure and displaced more than one million Lebanese. 

The 2006 war with Israel was a complete disaster for Hezbollah. Sheikh al-Nabulsi apparently has forgotten. And while it is true that Hezbollah now has an estimated arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, Israel’s defenses have vastly improved as well. It now has a three tier anti-missile defense system consisting of Arrow 2 and 3 long-range missiles, David’s Sling mid-range defensive missiles, and the Iron Beam system to deal with short-range missiles. The latter had a 96% success rate at intercepting incoming missiles from Gaza last May.

When asked if he thinks Hezbollah should launch a war against Israel, Nabulsi responded “Yes, Hezbollah and the resistance want to change the balance of powers in Lebanon and in the region, and we should not be ashamed or afraid to say this.” 

 War with Israel will change the balance of power all right, but not in the way al-Nabulsi thinks. Such a war will change that balance both between Israel and Hezbollah, and between Hezbollah and its many enemies inside Lebanon. Hezbollah will again be badly mauled by the IDF in another case of Israel being forced to “mow the lawn” – which should keep the Shi’a terror group quiet for another decade or so, until it again needs to be taught a lesson.

Nabulsi’s statements came amid heightened tensions along the Lebanese-Israeli border. 

About two months ago, armed Hezbollah operatives set up two tents in Israeli territory in the Shebaa Farms area, with the act revealed to the public “in mid-June. Israel has reportedly been conducting extensive diplomatic efforts through UNIFIL to convince Hezbollah to move the tents back into Lebanese territory, but Hezbollah and Lebanese officials have insisted that the area the tents are currently located in belongs to Lebanon. The tents as of Thursday [July 21] have not been disturbed.”

Israel is showing great patience with the latest provocations by Hezbollah on the border, where the terror group has set up tents on territory it claims, without foundation, to belong to Lebanon. But the Jewish state’s patience is not unlimited, and if Hezbollah operatives do not remove its tents, ultimately the IDF will do it for them.  

During a speech last week [in early July], Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah stressed that Israel “would not dare” to act against the tents, as Hezbollah would respond to any such action. 

Nasrallah reiterated the claim that the tents are located in Lebanese territory, not Israeli territory, adding that the tents were only put up after Israeli authorities began building a fence around the village of Ghajar, which is split in half by the Blue Line with half in Lebanon and half in Israel….

Shortly before Nasrallah’s speech, three Hezbollah members were reportedly injured after attempting to damage the border fence. Nasrallah stated that the incidents were “under investigation” and stressed that “necessary measures” would be carried out once the investigation was completed. 

Despite Nasrallah’s claim that Israel “would not dare” to act against the tents, the IDF is perfectly prepared to fire on Hezbollah members, as it just did against three of them who were wounded while attempting to tamper with Israel’s security fence. After the investigation of the incident is completed, those “necessary measures” that Nasrallah claims will be taken will simply be passed over in silence; Nasrallah is a braggart warrior, but he knows better than al-Nabulsi that Hezbollah must not put the IDF to the test.

Nasrallah additionally demanded that Israel withdraw from the northern part of Ghajar, as well as the Shebaa Farms area, the Kfarchouba hills, and any other disputed locations along the border. 

Israel has no intention of withdrawing its troops from anywhere on the border with Lebanon – not from the village of Ghajar, not from the Shebaa Farms area, not anywhere that the Lebanese claim, without foundation, belongs to them.

Two weeks ago, an anti-tank missile was fired toward the village of Ghajar, which is split in half by the Blue Line. In response to the missile fire, the IDF launched artillery strikes on sites near the towns of Kfarchouba and Halta. Over 15 shells were fired by the IDF toward southern Lebanon, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency. 

The response, by the IDF, in letting loose an artillery barrage of 15 shells on Lebanese positions in response to a single anti-tank missile fired by Hezbollah, was a warning that no more tit-for-tat responses by the IDF should be expected; the Israeli answer to any attack by Hezbollah will from now on be many times more powerful.

On Thursday evening, a fire broke out along the border near the town of Blida, south of Kiryat Shemona, with Hezbollah-affiliated reporter Ali Shoeib blaming Israeli forces for the blaze….

This fire at Blida was another warning from the IDF to Hezbollah not to act up, and a reminder to remove its tents.

 On Wednesday, Shoeib reported that two smoke grenades  were thrown by Israeli forces near Lebanese forces and UNIFIL personnel. 

 These “smoke grenades” do not wound or kill, but they do make it much more physically difficult for the Lebanese trying to build a road near Israel’s concrete barrier, as they have to work in a haze of thick smoke.

Since former president Michel Aoun left office in October, Lebanon’s parliament has failed to elect a president to replace him, with 12 attempts to do so failing so far. The crisis has led to an exacerbation of the country’s ongoing economic and political crisis.

Any presidential candidate would need 86 votes in the first round of voting or 65 in the second round in order to be elected. In the most recent attempt, former finance minister Jihad Azour – the candidate backed by the Christian parties and the parties opposing Hezbollah – received 59 votes, while former health minister Suleiman Frangieh – the candidate backed by Hezbollah and the Amal movement – received 51 votes. 17 other votes were placed for other candidates.

Azour and Frangieh are currently the central candidates in the race, with the country’s largest Christian parties – the Free Patriotic Movement, the Lebanese Forces, and Kataeb Party – backing Azour. 

Azour currently serves as the International Monetary Fund’s Director of the Middle East and Central Asia….

Unlike Frangieh, who is rightly regarded as a Hezbollah pawn and a traitor to Lebanon’s Christians, who have suffered under Hezbollah’s ascendancy, Azour is a respected economist and an IMF director whose economic expertise is desperately needed by Beirut at a time when the Lebanese economy is in free fall. If he becomes president, this should help restore confidence in Lebanon’s economic prospects among potential foreign investors.

Hezbollah claims to be the paladin for all the Lebanese, protecting them from Israel. But apparently many of the Lebanese do not agree. They support Azour, the anti-Hezbollah candidate, for President, and they look at Hezbollah’s aggressive actions on the border with Israel with horror, for if they continue, this could provoke a war. Such a war between the IDF and Hezbollah will endanger Lebanon’s wellbeing, whose civilians paid a heavy price in the last IDF-Hezbollah war in 2006, and do not want any repetition. But at present they are unable to curb Hezbollah’s sabre-rattling. Perhaps, with Azour installed as president, providing the reassurance of economic competence that would-be foreign investors require, the listing ship of state will be righted, and the Lebanese opposition to Hezbollah feel it can at long last stand up to Nasrallah and his bezonians, who have in the past always brought to Beirut a world of woe.