40% is not a small amount.
The media presents expert opinions and we all too often absorb them. Even the most skeptical of us think that the experts know what they’re talking about. Surely they couldn’t be wildly wrong about their claims.
An estimated 3,726 to 5,578 tigers currently live in the wild worldwide — up 40% from 2015, according to a new tiger assessment from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).
But much of the increase is because of improvements in monitoring the animals.
Uh okay.
The post facto explanations would sit better if the original numbers had come with the caveat that, “we have no idea what the real number might be.” The WWF is still claiming 3,900 tigers. Obviously we get this with polar bears all the time. But tigers are still widely listed as being in the 3,000 range with no caveats.
If there are over 5,000, might there actually be 8,000? The answer appears to be who knows.
The experts aren’t omnipotent obviously, but it would help enormously if we stopped being handed misrepresentations of what we know for certain and what is speculation. Institutional trust is in a bad enough place without constantly making it worse.
Wellington says
This article by Greenfield is dispositive of how much relating to our environment is off by at least 40%, if not by far huger margins.
The ultimate cause: The false assumption that man extraordinarily influences matters when, per George Carlin (and please see his some 7 minute skit on global warming) we are consumed by our own self-importance. As Carlin goes on to relate in this skit (just put into any search engine “George Carlin on global warming”), the Earth is doing fine but the people are fucked. Fewer truer words have been spoken in our era. Oh yeah, and Al Gore was certainly correct about the Arctic and polar bears. Right.
CogitoErgoSum says
Just viewed a video about Doggerland, the area now under the waters of the North Sea. Archeologists have found artifacts and bones to show the area now underwater was once above sea level around 10,000 years ago. When glaciers in other parts of the Earth melted (without any help from car exhaust) Doggerland submerged beneath the sea about 6,500 years ago or more. Climate change is part of the way the Earth is. The ice comes and the ice goes and the oceans rise and fall. The tilt of the Earth’s axis also affects how much warmth we get from the Sun as we orbit the Sun and how that changes as Earth’s distance to the Sun in summer and winter changes over the centuries. (See Milankovitch cycles.) Climate change was going on long before humans were burning coal or driving cars and it will go on long after we are gone. We can adapt. The world will not end – at least not for a very long time.
CogitoErgoSum says
P S: When I do a google search of Milankovitch cycles the first result I get is an article from NASA saying other causes for climate change are more likely. The global warming is too abrupt. They say the entire cycle takes about 26,000 years and we are probably now headed into another cooling period. So if we are headed into another ice age why is warming so bad?
Nevertheless, I do think our atmosphere should be kept as clean as possible but the fanaticism about it has become way overblown. The world has been warmer than this when the dinosaurs grew to be enormous sizes and probably the plant life also due to the extra CO2. I do think we should decrease our reliance on fossil fuels but the urgency about it is most likely way overblown. Plus, we need to get China, India, Brazil and other countries to cut their emissions for any real difference to be made. I just wish people would be more honest about it. But then there is Joe Biden serving as Liar in Chief….
Egor says
Not forgetting the methane gas coming out of those giant arses. We could send out Jacinda Ardern to deal with the problem. I believe she is a gas when it comes to gas.
Namer says
In Inhttp://www.columbia.edu/cu/21stC/issue-2.3/krumenaker.htmldia people regularly get ti see a tiger
Please read this article. It just proves how right you are about the constantly changing sea level.
Namer says
http://www.columbia.edu/cu/21stC/issue-2.3/krumenaker.html
Phil Copson says
“Rainforests and wetlands were invented because people won’t give money to save jungles and swamps.” LOL
Keith O says
A little bit of math can add a lot of clarity to this article.
There used to be 9 subspecies of tigers in the world, 3 are now extinct. that leaves 6 subspecies left.
now if we divide say the best case scenario of 5578 total cats that’s about 929 per species on average, some may be a lot more or a lot less.
Think of it this way, how would you feel if you knew you were 1 of 929 Americans left on earth?
I had the opportunity to see one of these magnificent creatures in the wild from about 10 metres away. That is the sort of experience I wish my grandkids could have but sadly I don’t think it will happen.
somehistory says
Just yesterday, there was a photo of a Jaguar…the cat, not the car…with the article relating the experience of a photographer who spotted one at the border of Mexico and the U.S. He saw it several times, taking photos with one of those cameras of the wild when the animal is just strolling by. He said that he began to see that the markings were not the same in each photo and figured out that there was more than one cat.
Jaguars used to roam over the Southern part of the U.S….western part before they were hunted.
The “experts” would need to catch or shoot and tag every tiger to get an accurate count.
as school teachers who take the wee ones out to recess…do they still have recess?…can tell you, it’s difficult to count when the subjects are moving around.
Insects…the Monarch Butterfly for one…are also in trouble. Man is killing off their own kind every day of the week and more often on Fridays, so what animals…tiny or very large… are not also at risk?
tim gallagher says
I suppose that a lot of these figures would be approximate numbers, and I suspect some might be deliberately alarmist. Just last night on the TV news here in Sydney, because the zoo in Sydney has a breeding program for Sumatran tigers, they showed these magnificent animals. The report said that only 400 Sumatran tigers exist in the wild because of habitat loss. I imagine that that number would be fairly accurate, they must be able to get it close to right in a smaller area, but the numbers overall, as in worldwide, might be very hard to get right.
somehistory says
I just read a story from your country, Tim, about the soccer players not wearing pride jerseys. I say, good for them. 7 guys, I believe, and for “religious and cultural” reasons, but the ones who have that “pride” have their feelings all upset.
One of my daughters went to Busch Gardens in Tampa, Florida, some years ago and got some really neat photos of a huge tiger. He seemed very content. they don’t cage them up like a lot of zoos, but give the animals larger areas and more like their natual habitat.
tim gallagher says
Yes, that was big news out here yesterday and today a little as well. The main sport i follow is Rugby League football and that is the sport where this happened. Lots of the players in Rugby League and Rugby Union are from Samoan, Tongan and other Pacific islander backgrounds (Fijians), etc as they have powerful physiques which suit the very tough game. Many are very strong Christian believers and so they would not go along with this gay pride idea. Most people support their stand I would say. People are sick of the sports being invaded by all sorts of woke stuff. This incident will blow over soon. On the tigers, I can only hope that they survive and thrive. Great animals. Of course, here in Australia, many animals face extinction, the one that gets most attention being koala bears, which I would hate to see go. Surely, one of the cutest animals in the world. I’ve been out for hours visiting my sister, always good to see her, a very pleasant person despite being a fairly left wing person, so I am only now replying to your comment.
somehistory says
thanks, tim, for correcting me. I’m terrible sometimes at recalling minor details from things I read quickly. there’s just so much to absorb.
my son did an oil painting of a koala with a baby…it’s rather, cute and looks cuddly, as does the real thing.
I’m glad you had a pleasant visit with your sister. I have two sisters still living, but both in other states, and we no longer get along well enough to visit. People can be so….well, you know what I mean, i think.
I’m going to be calling it a day soon, and thanks for replying.
tim gallagher says
I’m often pretty vague, somehistory, so getting soccer mixed up with rugby League (not a well known sport) is understandable. I don’t follow soccer at all, even though it is a very big sport worldwide. Koalas are very cute animals. They are losing a lot of the eucalyptus forests they need to live in. Sorry to hear about your not getting along with your sisters. Getting along with people can be bloody hard. Luckily, I do get on quite well with my three sisters and my brother, though I hardly ever see him as he is something of a hippie and lives a 6 hour drive away from the city where I live, way up near Queensland. He plays the guitar quite well so we often talk about music.
somehistory says
thanks, Tim. The only rugby I’ve ever seen was in things like Midsomer murders where one of the detectives played it, so I know next to nothing about it, but I have watched some soccer. Not a lot, but real games.
I don’t get along with my sisters because they decided that all family matters regarding our mom had to go through them. If she told me anything, they said she was lying, and then they put her in a place, had all medical and financial contacts through them legally, and then cut their contacts with her. so, I believe I have good reason to avoid them. the last time I spoke to her was on the phone the day before she died. She told me I could have certain photos she had in her stuff;, but they said I lied about that and wouldn’t send them.
anyway, I try to be nice and get along. All of my brothers with whom I had good relationships have all died. I’m glad you have family and you enjoy their company.
tim gallagher says
Sorry to hear about your family problems. I find getting along with many people hard, but, in our family we get along reasonably well. I mostly talk to them over the phone. I can say this though, which will possibly make your family problems seem more normal, we do have one brother that none of us ever have anything to do with because, years ago, maybe 12 or so years ago, he ripped my mother off for a large amount of money. A compete scam artist, a fraudster, so all of us are happy to have nothing at all to do with him. He doesn’t exist for me or any of us, so I didn’t mention the scam artist at all.
somehistory says
Thanks, Tim. I agree that getting along is hard. there were 11 of us, i was right in the middle. with that many, there are bound to be conflicts and opposing personality traits. I got along with all of my older brothers, but my one older sister was a trial all by herself. the younger ones, were my responsibility to basically raise without any authority, if that makes sense. I was supposed to make them do things and behave, but I had no authority if they didn’t.
I think they always resented me, and the younger sisters are the ones I don’t bother with. they always made my life a little bit of h e double hockey sticks. Two of my younger brothers are gone, and the one remaining lives in another state. we correspond sometimes by email, but not often.
I’m sorry you had a brother that turned out to a scam artist. It seems most families with several siblings, have at least one bad apple. Dr Hare wrote a book about psychopaths…not that your brother is one….and one of the persons he wrote about as an example was a twin girl. the one twin was loving and kind to the parents and the other, the psychopath, was a thief and caused the parents and sister much grief. but, it does make for sadness when brothers and sisters and children can’t be trusted.
tim gallagher says
Eleven children. That is a huge number of children, somehistory. In our Catholic family, there were six children. When I look back, I think that that was too many kids for our parents to try to bring up effectively. Anyway, we all get along pretty well and support one another except for the scam artist and he is, naturally, a total outcast. Psychopaths are definitely a problem and the main thing that I hope is that I never have much to do with those dangerous, totally unfeeling scum of the earth. I suppose severe mental illness might make some of those creatures the way they are.
somehistory says
yes, Tim, eleven is a large number. My mom had three sons and then her husband died and she married my father and they had eight of us. But my father was a sharecropper after he left the army and so he needed all of us to work in the fields. All of the older ones, and down through me and my next younger brother, learned to plant and hoe and harvest. I had to learn to plow when I was eight years, but I had to walk where my father had already walked, or I couldn’t stay on my feet and hold the plow.
It was a hard life, but we all learned to appreciate the rest when it came.
My older brothers, the four of them. watched out for me until each one left home.
I miss them a lot. they were all good guys and made fine fathers.
there is debate about what makes a psychopath. some say, born that way, others say family, and others say the outside environment. I think it is a combination of those three things. A natural bent toward selfishness and lying, and the improper home training and outside associations who nurture those ugly traits.
They cause their families a lot of grief and unhappiness.
when parents feel like failures after seeing a child turn bad, I think it helps to reflect that even some angels in heaven turned against their Father.
tim gallagher says
That’s a bloody tough life you outline there, somehistory. My own background is totally different to that. Always lived in the suburbs of Sydney, a big city. My father was a very smart man and was a vet and so we were quite wealthy, however we have always had mental health problems running in our family for a couple of generations, including me to a pretty bad extent. That made life quite hard in some ways, but we were pretty much middle class people. Your own background sounds very tough with lots of hard physical labour. You have done well to survive it.
Treereen says
(whimsical…)
I want one! As a tiny cub, to be brought up with more “parental attention” than a house cat. But no. All those who do not wish me well and would invade my home are protected by law. Soz, can’t have your house tiger mauling criminals who are violating your home and trying to steal from you, it’s against their human rights! What about MY human rights as a victim of crime when I don’t have a house tiger?
gravenimage says
Official Estimate of Tigers as Endangered Species Off by 40%
………………………….
These figures are probably never going to be exact–and we *are* talking about a small number of animals with these tigers.
Some species *have* been brought back from the brink, like the California condor. By 1987, they were down to just 27 individuals. There was a dedicated program to breed and release them, and there are now over 500.
I don’t think this is a bad thing where it can be done, and no humans were harmed in the process.