Lebanon Threatens Israel Over ‘Disputed’ Maritime Zone

Not so many years ago, Israel was completely dependent on foreign imports for its energy needs – oil, natural gas, coal. All imported. Two things then happened. First, Israel began to invest in solar energy, and it has become a world leader in its use; solar now supplies 10% of Israel’s total energy, and by 2025 the Jewish state has committed to deriving 20% of its energy from solar. Second, and far more consequential, after years of drilling wells for oil and natural gas on land, and occasionally at sea, and coming up empty, or nearly so, every time, there’s been an astounding reversal of fortune.

Israel leased part of its economic waters to the American company Noble Energy, which discovered the Tamar and Leviathan natural gas fields. These are very large finds, turning Israel from a natural gas importer to a natural gas exporter; Israel produces not only all the natural gas it needs, but is now supplying both Egypt — its former supplier of gas — and Jordan. The Tamar field is considered to have proven reserves of 200 billion cubic meters (7.1 trillion cubic feet) of natural gas, while the adjoining Tamar South field has 23 billion cubic meters (810 billion cubic feet). Together, they may have an additional 84 BCM of “probable” reserves. The Leviathan field is even larger, with 535 billion cubic meters (18.9 trillion cubic feet)of natural gas, as well as hundreds of millions of barrels of oil just below the layer of natural gas.

Now Israel is determined to drill further In the Mediterranean. But Lebanon, deeply unhappy with Israel’s success, and suffering the greatest economic crisis in its history, is now threatening Israel, demanding that the Jewish state not drill in any “disputed waters” where Lebanon has a claim. Israel insists that the waters it plans to drill in lie in Israel’s exclusive economic zone and are not legitimately “disputed.” A report on the latest contretemps is here: “Lebanon warns against any Israeli ‘aggression’ in disputed waters,” Reuters, June 5, 2022:

Lebanon warned Israel on Sunday, June 5, against any “aggressive action” in disputed waters where both states hope to develop offshore energy, after a ship arrived off the coast to produce gas for Israel.

Lebanon warned Israel on Sunday, June 5, against any “aggressive action” in disputed waters where both states hope to develop offshore energy, after a ship arrived off the coast to produce gas for Israel.

President Michel Aoun said any activity in the disputed area would amount to an act of aggression and a provocation, after the arrival of the natural gas storage and production ship operated by London-based Energean.

Since when is drilling for gas in your own maritime zone “an act of aggression”? Will the Lebanese navy be attacking the drilling rig? How exactly does Lebanon plan to stop what it calls Israel’s “aggression”?

Israel says the field in question is within its exclusive economic zone, not in disputed waters.

But in a statement, the Lebanese presidency said Aoun discussed with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati the vessel’s entry “into the disputed maritime area with Israel, and asked the Army Command to provide him with accurate and official data to build upon the matter.”

Aoun said negotiations to delineate the southern maritime border continued and “any action or activity in the disputed area represents a provocation and an aggressive action.”

Israel insists that its drilling rigs will be operating not in “disputed” territory but in its clearly delineated economic zone. The map here should be consulted. Years ago, Lebanon tried the same trick, attempting to lay claim to the waters where the Tamar and Leviathan fields were located, but finally gave that up when it was clear to everyone that both fields were clearly well within Israel’s maritime zone.

Israel does not want to have companies spend upwards of $100 million to drill a single test well, and possibly find natural gas, only to then discover that the field turns out to be in Lebanon’s economic waters. Israel wants to be absolutely certain of its claim to those waters before drilling, and in the case of this newest potential field, named Karish (Hebrew for “Shark”), the Israelis – who have a habit of telling the truth — insist that Karish is entirely within Israel’s exclusive economic zone.

There was no immediate response from the Israeli government to Aoun’s statement. Israeli Energy Minister Karine Elaharrar welcomed the vessel’s arrival and said she hoped it would be brought online quickly.

The Israelis, it seems, are in no mood to even bother to answer Aoun. They have been through this before — think of the Shebaa Farms dispute between Israel and Lebanon,, where even the UN sided with Israel. They don’t wish to dignify his absurd claim with an answer. 

“We will continue to work to diversify the energy market and maintain stability and reliability,” she said.

Energean said its floating production storage and offloading vessel arrived on Sunday at the Karish field, about 80 km (50 miles) west of the city of Haifa, in Israel’s exclusive economic zone. The company said it planned to bring it online in the third quarter.

Look at a map. Put the point of your pencil at Haifa. Now move it 50 miles due west of Haifa. Where does that point end up? Not in a disputed zone, but in Israel’s exclusive maritime zone.

Mikati said Israel was “encroaching on Lebanon’s maritime wealth, and imposing a fait accompli in a disputed area,” calling this “extremely dangerous.”

A territory is not considered “disputed” and therefore off-limits to drilling until the “dispute” is settled, unless there is a colorable claim. Otherwise any state actor, at any time, could lay claim, no matter how baseless that claim may be, to this or that territory or maritime zone, and hold up its development, in a kind of territorial blackmail. The Lebanese are hoping that the Israelis, who are eager for drilling to begin at the Karish field, may be willing to share that field with Lebanon in order to get Beirut to drop its objections to Israeli drilling rigs. No dice. It’s not going to happen.

As Hassan Nasrallah, and Michel Aoun, and Najib Mikati are about to find out, Israel is in no mood to make concessions by sharing its natural gas bonanza, least of all in response to threats from a state that is ruled by the terror group Hezbollah.

Hezbollah has previously warned Israel against drilling for oil and gas in the disputed area until the issue is resolved, and said the group would take action if it did so.

Lebanon says its border cuts into the sea at an angle farther south and Israel’s claim runs farther north, creating a triangle of disputed waters.

Last year, Beirut expanded its claim by around 1,400 square km (540 square miles), enlarging the area disputed with Israel.

That hugely expanded claim – 540 square miles of the Mediterranean! — was made when Beirut hoped to be able to drill much closer to the Tamar and Leviathan fields. Israel made clear that it would not tolerate such a move into its maritime zone, and Beirut backed off. But it hasn’t given up in its attempt to take a share of Israel’s fields. It is now threatening severe consequences if rigs begin drilling in what Lebanon calls “disputed waters” but that Israel insists are within its own, undisputed maritime zone. I have a hunch – don’t you? – that Lebanon will quietly yield to the Jewish state, once it has made absolutely clear that it is in no mood to share its exclusive economic zone with its mortal enemy, Hezbollah.