Iran Tries to Come to Grips With the Abraham Accords

Iran cried bloody murder when the Abraham Accords were first announced, but now it has calmed down a bit, realizing it can’t stop the inevitable, and wondering how it might best handle what for the Islamic Republic is a difficult situation.

A report on this change in Iran’s tone, and its efforts to come to grips with a new, and unpleasant, geopolitical reality, is here: “Iran is beginning to understand the Abraham Accords – analysis,” by Seth J. Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, April 3, 2022:

Iran was surprised to see the recent Negev Summit where Israel hosted the foreign ministers of the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Egypt. While Tehran has been shouting about the Abraham Accords since the beginning, accusing Arab states of betraying the Palestinian cause and threatening them against working with Israel, it appears that the Islamic Republic now understands that this new era of peaceful diplomacy is actually happening, and it can’t prevent it.

In a recent article at Tasnim News, which reflects the views of the IRGC, the Iranian media said that the Gulf states have become closer to Israel because they see the US leaving the region. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan was one aspect of this new shift.

The Gulf Arab states are keenly aware that the Americans, having withdrawn in helter-skelter fashion from Afghanistan and – save for a skeleton crew of 2,500 soldiers – from Iraq as well, are lessening their presence in the Middle East in order to concentrate on their much-discussed “pivot toward Asia.” By that, the Americans mean focusing their attention on the threat of an ever-more-powerful and aggressive China.

Last year’s US withdrawal from Afghanistan woke up the well-to-do sheikhs on the southern shores of the Persian Gulf and raised the question in their minds: what to do after the US? Who is going to save security for countries that are mostly lacking in strategic depth and are on the verge of collapse?” Iran’s answer is that the Gulf states are shifting to Israel for support.

Seth Frantzman is wrong. Neither the UAE, nor Bahrain, nor Saudi Arabia, nor any other of the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are “on the verge of collapse.” But they do need a strong ally to take the place of the withdrawing Americans, to help them against an aggressive Iran that threatens them through its network of proxies and allies. These “proxies and allies” include the Houthis in Yemen who have been launching rockets and drones at energy plants, oil facilities, and airbases, in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. They also include the Kata’ib Hezbollah militia in southern Iraq; the Syrian army, that has allowed Iran to maintain its own bases in Syria; finally, the most powerful of Iran’s proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has more conventional weaponry than 95% of the world’s armies. That replacement for America in the Middle East is Israel, the strongest military power in the region, and the one determined to make sure, through its repeated feats of derring-do, including what may require the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities deep inside the mountains at Fordow and Natanz. Both the Americans — that is, the Bidenites — and the Israelis have said that they will never let Iran become a nuclear power. One of them is telling the truth.

Iran’s media acknowledged that the recent meeting was the first time that the foreign ministers of these countries have all gone to Israel together, which is historic. “The Zionists chose the meeting place of the ministers of the four Arab countries with the foreign minister of the Zionist regime in the Sde Boker area in the Negev desert, the area where David Ben-Gurion, the founder and the first prime minister of the regime, built a house for himself and his wife.”

The summit was held at Sde Boker, the site being highly symbolic as the residence, and burial place, of one of Israel’s founding fathers and first prime minister, David Ben Gurion. The Arab foreign ministers not only gathered at this place redolent of Zionist pioneers, but agreed to pay joint homage at the grave of Ben Gurion. This surely sent a frisson of fear down the spines of the officials in Tehran.

Iran monitored these developments closely. They understand that the countries also have some concerns about it and its nuclear deal. “It is clear that this meeting was held against Iran and provoked by the Zionist regime.”

Partly true. The Negev Summit was held mainly to discuss the Iranian threat, but it was not “provoked”—a loaded term – by Israel. It was “called” by Israel, a different thing. The Arab states needed no prompting, or “provoking.” They were eager to appear.

Tehran also followed closely another meeting where Egypt hosted Israel and the UAE, in which Iran says that regional defense cooperation against “drones, missiles and other hazards were on the agenda of the three leaders.” It reads reports that this could mean shared air defense technology, including Israel’s advances in laser technology. Recent reports in Gulf media have said Morocco wants Israeli air defense systems.

Israel is a world leader in anti-missile defense systems. Everyone has heard of Iron Dome, which was used in the war with Hamas last May, when it intercepted 90% of the missiles launched at Israel from Gaza. Many states, including Arab ones, want to buy Iron Dome. And now Israel has come up with the Iron Beam missile defense system, which uses laser-based energy, and complements Iron Dome in its ability to hit short-range missiles (that Iron Dome has trouble with); Iron Beam lasers are also at least fifty times cheaper than Iron Dome’s missiles, which means many more of them can be used to shoot down “missile swarms” that Iran is likely to launch in hopes of some of them getting past Iron Dome missiles.. And unsurprisingly, Iron Beam is now on the want-list of several Arab states.

 Sources differ on precise details, but Iron Beam is currently thought to have a maximum effective range of up to seven kilometers and is reportedly capable of destroying missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV’s), or mortar shells around four seconds after the twin high-energy fiber-optic lasers make contact with their target.

Iron Beam also solves two major problems with the Iron Dome: expense and vulnerability to swarm tactics. Iron Beam has the potential to eliminate the first problem outright. Every Iron Dome interception costs around $100,000 to $150,000, while every Iron Beam shot will cost a mere $2,000. And great numbers can be used effectively when the enemy uses swarm tactics, that is, shooting large numbers of missiles to overwhelm an Iron Dome anti-missile defense system. The Iron Beam can intercept, at very short range, many of those missiles. Iron Beam and Iron Dome perfectly complement one another.

Iran has taken account of efforts to form what is called an “Arab NATO… with the participation of Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.” No such Arab NATO has come into being, however, and Iran continues to use with impunity the Houthis in Yemen to target Saudi Arabia and the UAE. “Eventually, escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf and attacks on the Aramco…led Qatar, Jordan and Egypt to oppose the formation of such a coalition, preventing the United States from forming such an alliance.”

Former US “President Donald Trump and his unprecedented pressure on Arab countries to normalize relations with the Zionist regime led the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan to agree to” do so, Tasnim said.

The Trump Administration did not use “unprecedented pressure” on Arab countries to get them to normalize relations with Israel. It was most creative when it came to promoting the Abraham Accords. It offered to sell a squadron of F-35s to the UAE, that had long sought them, as well as EA-18 electronic jets, and Reaper drones. Bahrain, which is host to the largest American naval base in the Middle East, was given assurances of even closer military cooperation and protection against external enemies. Morocco was promised that its claim to the Western Sahara, violently contested by Algeria, would be recognized by Washington. As for the Sudan, it had its name removed from the list of countries supporting terrorism, and as another consequence, received a bridge loan from the U.S to clear the country’s arrears to the World Bank, thereby giving it access to $1 billion in annual funding. None of that can be called “unprecedented pressure.” In promoting the Abraham Accords, the U.S. was all carrots and no sticks.

NOW IRAN wonders if this new era will mean these countries will work successfully with Israel. “Will the Zionist regime be large enough to lead this coalition against Iran or any other country? The leaders of small [sic] Arab countries do not seem to have thought enough about this question….Can an alliance with the Zionists, who are far weaker in all aspects of power than the United States, be able to bring security to those who are willing to impose such a cost on their country in foreign policy?” This shows that Iran predicts more security risks for the Gulf.

Israel may be “far weaker” militarily than the U.S., but it is by far the strongest military power in the Middle East – the strongest military power, in fact, between Europe and India. The Jewish state is also strong economically, as the Start-Up Nation that seems to announce every week still another high-tech “unicorn” (a company that after its IPO is valued at one billion dollars or more) after another. The Iranians are dismissive of Israel’s power, and they want the Jewish state’s Arab allies to reconsider the consequences of allying with Israel – a clear allusion to the harm Iran can do to them. Are they sure an alliance with Israel will bring them the security they seek? Might not submission to Iranian demands be a wiser course of action? That’s the worry Iran wishes to spread.

Iran is now examining how strong this new alliance might be. “The United States and the Zionist regime, by intimidating the leaders of rich Arab countries and making Iran look bigger [i.e., a bigger threat than it actually is] intend to throw the Arab countries into a big trap that they themselves have been avoiding entering for two decades.”

And what is that “big trap’”for the Gulf Arabs if not an alliance with the Zionists? The Iranians are wracking their brains trying to figure out how to dissuade those Arabs from such an alliance.

Tehran says it will not turn a blind eye to this coalition. That could mean new Houthi attacks on the Gulf. Iran also points to Hamas having waged war against Israel in May 2021. “the [sic] Islamic Resistance [Hamas] fired more than 12,000 rockets at the occupied territories.”

Hamas fired not 12,000, but 4,500 rockets into Israel during the May 2021 war. And 90% of them were intercepted by Iron Dome. If Tehran is threatening to unleash Hamas against Israel, it’s not much of a threat, especially now that Israel also has the Iron Beam anti-missile defense system in operation. As for Houthi attacks on the Gulf, those have been, and still are, being launched, without having done significant damage either to the UAE or to Saudi Arabia. Iran is a threat, but not an overwhelming one unless, and until, it acquires nuclear weapons. And Israel has sworn that it will never permit that to happen. Given Israel’s record in slowing down Iran’s nuclear program, beginning in 2010 with the Stuxnet computer worm, and continuing through targeted assassinations of key nuclear scientists, the sabotage of two separate nuclear facilities at Natanz, one of them built deep underground, the seizure of Iran’s entire nuclear archive, and many other unheralded acts of similar derring-do, I believe the Israelis can, and will, stop Iran’s nuclear program in time. No one has ever lost money betting on the IDF and Mossad.

Iran notes that none of the countries that are now working with Israel have been historically against the Jewish state. “Normalizing relations with these countries will not bring much for the Zionists, especially since [Israel]’s neighboring countries are not willing to normalize relations with the Zionists.” This refers to Lebanon and Syria where Iran has influence.

Iran’s point here is that with this new alliance there has been no great gain for Israel: the countries now working with Israel as members of the Abraham Accords were never the Jewish state’s enemies to begin with. But that isn’t true. Sudan sent troops to fight Israel in both 1948 and 1967. It has historically exhibited deep enmity toward the Jewish state; it was in Khartoum that the “Three No’s” – “No peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with Israel” – were issued. The Sudan for a while even gave refuge to Osama bin Laden and members of Al Qaeda.

As for Morocco, it sent troops to fight Israel in the Yom Kippur War; hundreds were killed. Morocco remained an enemy, though it is true that Rabat has also softened over time because of the perception that the nearly one million Israelis of at least part-Moroccan descent could some day serve as a human bridge between Morocco and Israel. King Mohammed VI has also been personally well-disposed toward Jews. His senior advisor, André Azoulay, is a Moroccan Jew. But Iran is wrong in claiming that Morocco was “never one of Israel’s enemies to begin with.”

Furthermore, Egypt and Arabia, which have long been unofficial allies of Israel, a country with which they closely collaborate on security matters, have been visceral enemies of the Jewish state in the past. Egypt fought three major wars with Israel; Saudi Arabia organized the use of the “oil weapon” during and after the Yom Kippur War, to force European states to distance themselves from Israel. 

The Islamic Republic praises the recent terror attacks on Israel in Beersheba and Hadera, claiming that “five Zionists” were killed in one of the attacks. “These operations have shocked and confused the Israeli security services.”

The Israelis shot dead all five of the terrorists who took part in the three attacks. They have not been either “shocked or confused” by those terrorists. Israel, girding its loins, has determinedly called up 14 battalions of IDF soldiers to help the police both in the territories and along the Seam Line. All done methodically, calmly, with no signs of Israeli “confusion” or “shock.” That “confusion” and “shock” is what Iran wants Israel’s Arab allies to think, as they weigh the value of their alliance with the Jewish state.

IDF soldiers have been fanning out across Israel and the territories, where they have already apprehended about forty-five suspects believed to belong to ISIS.

Iran concludes that “if the calculations take into account Hezbollah in Lebanon and the advanced missiles, as well as the drones that the resistance group has, the exact weight [sic for “value”] of the Arab-Zionist NATO that is likely to be formed will be determined.”…

Tehran is hinting here, in somewhat awkward English, that it will seek to use proxies to attack Israel in the coming months, and the Zionists and their allies are likely to be surprised by the enormous damage Hezbollah and the “advanced missiles” — presumably those in Hezbollah’s arsenal are meant, but this may also refer to Iran’s own store of precision-guided missiles – can do to those who side with Israel.

There is no “Arab-Zionist NATO.” Instead, there are Arab states that are opposed to Iran’s regional aggression, and as a consequence, have been ready to forge closer military ties with Israel. Nothing so concentrates the mind on Iran as those Iranian missiles and drones that the Houthis have been letting loose on energy plants, oil facilities, and airbases in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Several of the Arab states militarily linked to Israel – the UAE and Bahrain – are also members of the Abraham Accords. Two countries that are not members of the Abraham Accords, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, have for several years been cooperating with Israel on intelligence and military matters. None of them gives any sign that they are ready to drop Israel as an ally and submit instead to the demands of the neighborhood bully, Iran.