I’m skeptical of the 90% of the spin in the Wall Street Journal article which attributes this as a response to the Ukraine conflict.
The Chinese nuclear effort long predates Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the U.S.’s wariness about getting directly involved in the war there has likely reinforced Beijing’s decision to put greater emphasis on developing nuclear weapons as a deterrent, some of these people say. Chinese leaders see a stronger nuclear arsenal as a way to deter the U.S. from getting directly involved in a potential conflict over Taiwan.
Part of that may be plausible.
The truly significant part though is that China’s accelerating buildup suggests that it expects an imminent conflict.
Among recent developments, work has accelerated this year on more than 100 suspected missile silos in China’s remote western region that could be used to house nuclear-tipped missiles capable of reaching the U.S., according to analysts that study satellite images of the area.
American leaders have said the thinking behind China’s nuclear advance is unclear. Independent security analysts who study nuclear proliferation say they are also in the dark about what is driving Beijing after exchanges between Chinese officials and analysts mostly dried up in the past few years.
The answer is pretty clear.
China expects to need a larger nuclear arsenal with which to stalemate, blackmail or intimidate another nuclear power, and realistically it’s a short list.
1. America
2. Russia
3. India
China is an ongoing conflict with India, but it’s not likely to be engaging in a major nuclear buildup for that. It has plenty of nukes with which to intimidate India. While the Russia-China relationship is complex and has tensions, realistically China expects to intimidate America. And Taiwan and various Chinese expansionist plans are the issues likely to trigger any kind of showdown.
This is why Biden’s mishandling of the Ukraine war by sending mixed messages and showing weakness has been a disaster.
The likeliest way to stumble into a war is by sending mixed messages and showing weakness whether or not you want a war.
somehistory says
Some years ago, there was an ad that showed a large group of chinese…someone giving a lecture and a group of students in the audience. The guy on stage said something about taking over the U.S. and the students all laughed with smug looks.
This is what they want…to take over, to conquer and subjugate…just as mozlums want.. to do. mozlums are their competition in this ‘race’.
tim gallagher says
China has been waiting for a long time to be a really dominating, thuggish force in the world and the scum in charge of that country can see that this is their time. I think it is going to be hard to prevent China becoming the most powerful force in the world. It will make the world a far worse place but I think that it is inevitable that it is going to happen. It is a shame, but sometimes the scum of the earth do succeed, which is what I think the Communist vermin that run China so brutally are. I hope I’m wrong, but it does seem to be the time when the Chinese regime will get to bully and kick the crap out of many countries throughout the world. i doubt whether China is ever going to have anything but a vicious, totally repressive type of government in charge. It never has and probably never will.
Infidel says
My only disagreement w/ Greenfield above – I do think that China is aiming its nukes at India. Population wise, they know that they have no chance, but if they can nuke and hollow out India, it could be as easy to overrun as Tibet. As Gordon Chang pointed out, they believe that population is power – which is stupid, b’cos in that case, countries in Africa would be mini superpowers. At any rate, I do believe that China is building its nukes for India. For taking on the US, I believe that their military AI is what’s being designed for that
somehistory says
If they launch over the States, using the awfulness of an EMP…they could seriously cripple the military response. As well as put a stop to just about everything. some “experts” are worried about that.
gravenimage says
Infidel, I can see China doing some ugly saber rattling with India, but I do not get the sense that they want to wipe out India’s population and steal her land. Oh, they’d be evil enough to do it; I just don’t think that would make logistical sense for them.
gravenimage says
Communist China Building Up Its Nuclear Arsenal for Imminent Conflict
I’m skeptical of the 90% of the spin in the Wall Street Journal article which attributes this as a response to the Ukraine conflict.
The Chinese nuclear effort long predates Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the U.S.’s wariness about getting directly involved in the war there has likely reinforced Beijing’s decision to put greater emphasis on developing nuclear weapons as a deterrent…
………………..
This would only be true if China was worried about Russia. This is not completely implausible, but Russia has not directly challenged Chinas since the Soviet days. I think the only link to Ukraine is that China has become emboldened by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. They have already quietly seized a number of uninhabited islands also claimed by Japan.
More:
…some of these people say. Chinese leaders see a stronger nuclear arsenal as a way to deter the U.S. from getting directly involved in a potential conflict over Taiwan.
………………..
This seems the main point–those uninhabited islands are a trial balloon. The *real* goal is invading affluent democratic Taiwan. This has been a thorn in Communist China’s side since Mao. Chinese Communists cannot stand seeing *any* Chinese free.
Infidel says
China is not threatened by the likes of Taiwan, Japan, India either. Once one recognizes China as a predatory state that dwarfs even Russia in ambitions, it won’t be hard to see what they’d be up to in Siberia. One ideology that President Xi shares w/ China’s Middle Kingdom era rulers is Tianxia, or ‘all under heaven’. According to this ideology, China is the only sovereign entity on earth
Once one understands that, what Daniel Greenfield wrote makes complete sense. And given the populations, and particularly how Russia has had to struggle in Ukraine and revise its ambitions to the Donbass, China could possibly overrun Siberia and pretty much devour Mongolia, which would be like a Lesotho. They will get all those great resources as well as the lebensraum to force huge sections of their populations to relocate to Siberia
gravenimage says
Infidel, I never said the China feels threatened by Taiwan–they just want to seize her and take the wealth she has developed. They could obviously take Mongolia with little effort, although I am not sure they’d consider this land a great prize. Not sure about Russia–certainly there have been skirmishes between the two during the Soviet era. But even if the Russian military failed–certainly possible–I don’t think that any Russians would be happy living under Chinese conquest; I think China would face a permanent guerilla war if nothing else.
tim gallagher says
Infidel, I think that China is going to become the all time champion among predatory states. I was saying to a friend of mine that the only way I can see China being controlled would be if it was broken up into three or four smaller entities. it’ll never happen, but I can’t see China being able to be controlled any other way. sometimes, the bad guys win and that regime in China, which stomps on its people at home and will seek to do exactly the same all throughout in its area of the world, is an extraordinarily evil, inhuman regime. No one will be able to really take China on because it would lead to mutual destruction through the weapons China has along with the weapons the other nations opposing China also have. I hope I am wrong, that’s for sure..
Infidel says
Tim
Long term, I do see that to be the solution. Once China is overcome, not only should they lose Tibet and Xinjiang: Inner Mongolia should go to Mongolia, Manchuria should become independent and Canton speaking parts of China – essentially Guangzhou, Macao and Hong Kong – should secede and become independent. I don’t know what other internal differences there are within China, but whatever other differences there are should materialize and break them up even more
My only concern: while I support Tibet’s independence, or having a relationship w/ India similar to Bhutan’s simply b’cos they’re not viable as an independent state, I don’t support the same in Xinjiang. I do fear that that will become an islamic state, w/ all that that entails, and will be a threat to Mongolia, and maybe even India
tim gallagher says
Thanks for the comment, Infidel. You know more about the different regions of China than I do. I was just talking off the top of my head when I said to my friend that the only way I can see that China can be controlled is by breaking the massive, thuggish powerhouse up. I did think that, with such a huge land mass, there must be many areas of China where the people would feel no affiliation or liking for certain other areas of the country or towards the government. I didn’t really think that it could happen, but i do see China as a gigantic threat to all countries (well, I don’t think China will bother Europe much – I don’t think Europe is on their radar at all) in the future. I hope I’m wrong but I see China as a country that has wanted to strut about as the big world power and now the leadership there sees its opportunity in the near future. Off this subject, it was interesting to see imran Khan thrown out as Prime Minister in pakistan. No doubt, they’ll come up with some other evil scumbag though.
Walter Sieruk says
President pretender Biden is a catastrophe and calamity for America and a treasonous disaster and traitorous tragedy for the American people and a treacherous curse upon the Taiwan and her citizens.
In contrast, Bogus President Biden is a demonic blessing to that aggressive, hostile tyrannical Communist regime of mainland Red China.
Walter Sieruk says
Joe Biden is so very corrupt and despicable that to give only one example out of many is that Biden eliminated many American tariffs on items made in Red China.
Obviously related to this is that Biden has a history of accepting “gift’s” bribes, from Communists China.
.
Therefore Biden will be totally useless to aid or help Taiwan if she is attacks by Red China.
For it has been written, “The wicked accept bribes in secret to pervert the course of justice.”
The Bible, Proverbs 17:23. [N.I.V.]
OLD GUY says
If you give a street thug a chance they will push for more territory and power. World leaders operate the same way, it’s a push and shove game for who control the neighborhood. If you show weakness someone will step in and fill the void. Right now China sees its opportunity to advance it’s territory and influence with little or no cost to them.