Under the eye-catching title “Why is no one talking about Iran digging a new unbombable nuke facility?” Yonah Jeremy Bob discusses the new Iranian nuclear facility deep inside the mountain at Natanz here.
Iran is developing a new nuclear threat that could be a game-changer – and which will continue to proceed regardless of whether there is a nuclear deal or not.
It is a problem that almost no one is talking about, in an area called Natanz where the Mossad allegedly blew up two different nuclear facilities in July 2020 and April 2021 respectively.
The new enormous nuclear threat is a new underground facility Iran is digging and building in the Natanz area which goes so deep under a mountain so large that it will leave the Fordow facility in the dust in terms of how difficult it would be for the IDF to strike it.
In a report, Institute for Science and International Security president David Albright wrote, “Fordow is already viewed as so deeply buried that it would be difficult to destroy via aerial attack. The new Natanz site may be even harder to destroy.”
Why no one is talking about it – other than Albright – is probably a mix of it being an issue that may not fully mature until 2023 and that there are few good options for addressing….
There is another possibility. Both the Americans and the Israelis, who are surely working furiously on possible solutions to the problem, prefer at this point to do so in the dark, without alerting the Iranians.
The faciility at Fordow was thought to be the deepest one Iran had dug, and many thought that if the Americans provided Israel with the 30,000 pound MOPS – Massive Ordinance Penetrators known as “bunker busters” – in its arsenal, it might just be possible to destroy Fordow. But it was not a given. And now there is a much more impregnable facility that Iran is building inside the mountain at Natanz.
Ali Akbar Salehi, the then-head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) stated in April 2021, “We are working 24/7 to move all our sensitive halls into the heart of the mountain near Natanz.”
However, more than a year-and-a-half after the July 2020 sabotage, the replacement facility remains undone. Salehi had also said they hoped the halls “will be ready by next year so we can move these facilities to them.”
“However, even now it is unknown if the new site will be ready for operation before 2023….
If that is true – that the new facility at Natanz will not be ready until sometime in 2023 — that gives Israel, and the U.S., whose president has pledged “Iran will never get a nuclear weapon on my watch,” some breathing room to figure out how to keep delaying the completion of the newest Natanz facility or, ideally, how to destroy it altogether.
Albright wrote that, “near the Western tunnel portal, there is road grading, perhaps for a second Western portal, or the genesis of an access route to the top of the mountain to allow the construction of a ventilation shaft/system on the top of the mountain.”
He recommended that, “Efforts should be made to dissuade Iran from finishing this facility, or… to at least disrupt its procurements of needed equipment and raw materials,” since otherwise, the facility could “reconstitute Iran’s ability to deploy thousands of advanced centrifuges each year, once again complicating any effort to lengthen its breakout or sneak-out timelines in a nuclear agreement.”
Why has the Biden Administration not raised this matter – of the new Natanz facility – in the negotiations in Vienna? Is It because it is so desperate for a deal with Iran that it does not want to anger Tehran by raising this new issue? But what is the point of negotiating an agreement about Iran’s nuclear program that ignores the sudden appearance of a brand-new elephant in the room? Why shouldn’t Washington insist that it will not lift sanctions on Iran as long as the work at Natanz – picked up by satellite images of the site – continues? Perhaps the Americans could dramatically raise the issue in a presidential address to the nation, where Biden could say something like this:
The government of Iran is now building a massive nuclear facility some 1600 meters deep inside the mountain at Natanz, a full 50% deeper than its facility at Fordow. If Iran is truly interested only in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, as it claims, why does it need to build this facility inside a mountain at all? Why go to so much trouble to hide a “peaceful facility”? I think we all know the answer to that. Iran is determined to produce a nuclear weapon. I have pledged that Iran will not acquire a nuclear bomb on my watch. That is why I have ordered our air force today to destroy the two portals – the entrances on the western and eastern sides of the mountain — so that access inside is no longer possible. And If Iran chooses to try to reopen those portals, or to create others, we will again destroy them. If we cannot reach the facility inside the mountain with our current massive ordnance penetrators, or bunker-busters, we can nonetheless prevent the Iranians from entering and exiting that facility. And we can also send bombs down into the opening of the ventilation shaft/system that goes from the top of the mountain to the facility deep within. I hope that in Tehran the message has been received, and that Iran will give up these efforts which, if renewed, will again be dealt with in the same manner. Thank you, and good night.
Infidel says
Hugh
At this moment, I wouldn’t bunch the Americans w/ the Israelis. Biden is doing his level best to resurrect the JCPOA by paying Iran compensation for the cost of all the sanctions of the Trump administration. Israel may not be our enemy, but under this administration, we sure are Israel’s enemy. If anything, they ought to find out who all are pulling Biden’s strings, and take them out
They’ll do all of humanity a favor
revereridesagain says
+1
commonsense says
Amen, Infidel.
Buraq says
Fire a missile at the area that releases a load of radioactive Strontium 90 when it explodes. Rinse and repeat every year! No living creature, man or beast, will be able to work in such toxic radioactivity.
revereridesagain says
+1
Fitna says
I had a similar thought, a dirty bomb would make the area uninhabitable. But if I was running Israel, I’d take off the gloves and threaten a limited nuclear strike on the regime’s strongholds.
Mossad’s skills are so amazing they probably already know the names and addresses of the regime’s members, so they could assassinate them all. This is a war, all options should be on the table. I’m sure there are millions of Iranians chomping at the bit to kill these fascist tin-pot dictators, so they can easily be recruited to ‘take them out.’
As for the US, senile Old Joe doesn’t even know what century’s in, he’s unfit to run a lemonade stand, let alone run a country. Not to mention his bungled, disastrous, cowardly exit from Afghanistan, his bowing to the Taliban and giving them money, tells us all we need to know about how he’d handle a serious issue like Iran, under his leadership, America cannot be relied on, Israel is on it’s own.
Another option is to drag it out, until hopefully Trump is back in office. I doubt Americans will give Biden another term, unless they steal the election again (which is a possibility).
Frank Anderson says
Fitna, a dirty bomb would make an area OUTSIDE the facility, which is INSIDE the mountain uninhabitable, but not impassable. Uninhabitable is usually taken to mean that an area is not suited for normal residence and activity. BUT look at the work done, and workers killed at Chernobyl. If a regime really wants work done it can get it done. Iran has no shortage of suicide bombers who can be sacrificed working in deadly contaminated areas. Either the people who operate the equipment are eliminated, which is possible several ways, or the facility is eliminated. Imagine a cadre located in the mountain, being fed and supplied by remote controlled vehicles that can pass through the radioactive area around the entrance. That would defeat this approach of contaminating the area surrounding the entrance to the plant.
In the 1950’s and 60’s the US built a number of vehicles with shielding sufficient to protect an operator in extremely high levels of radiation. That work can be copied now that it has been tested and proven.
James Lincoln says
Frank Anderson,
Would the GBU-57 Massive Ordinance Penetrator (MOAB) bunker busting tactical warhead be of any use in a situation like this?
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/u-s-stocks-up-on-new-enhanced-moab-bunker-busters-for-confrontation-with-north-korea-iran
Frank Anderson says
James, it would take MANY hitting the same hole after the rubble is removed each time to blast through a mile of mountain.
Take a look at the US underground base within Cheyanne Mountain and the well published measures taken to shield the command center from a direct hit of a LARGE megaton bomb. The buildings are mounted on springs to allow the mountain to shake without damaging the buildings, contents or people. There have been many articles and a few documentaries about the base, which is similar to the described Iranian installation. I remember reading that a 10-megaton bomb detonated in contact with the top of the mountain would not damage the control center.
You might also consider the British WWII experience with Barnes Wallis’ Tallboy and Grand Slam bombs against German submarine pens along the French coast. The 22,000-pound Grand Slam failed to reach the working area. There is a documentary on Tubi.
If you get a chance to visit the Air Force Weapons Museum in Fort Walton Florida, at the entrance is a dummy bomb marked T-44. It was an unguided “improved” Grand Slam that may only have been delivered at the time by a B-36. Now we could fly several on skids in a C-5 or C-17. But an installation under a mile of mountain must be destroyed from inside, or the people eliminated by kidnapping, bribery or killing where they can be found. I would prefer bribery for any who could be lured into more peaceful and laudable pursuits.
Frank Anderson says
James, additional: When studying Linear Systems III, Traveling Waves, I noticed something the professor had not.
Consider a BB hitting a plate of glass. Notice the cone shaped hole that is formed if the BB has sufficient energy. The large diameter is on the side opposite the side the BB hits. That is because the BB creates a spherical wave in the glass which travels through to the other side and reflects. When it reflects, the stress is doubled, shattering the glass from back to front. The hole is smaller on the front because the reflected stress is reduced as the return wave travels back. That is the same math involved as a shaped charge penetrating a block of steel.
If the glass is thick enough, it will not shatter, because the reflected wave is not strong enough to exceed the strength of the glass. Getting a wave of sufficient strength to shatter a mile of mountain would be a challenge. Did I enjoy that course? And the professor enjoyed having me in the class.
James Lincoln says
Frank Anderson,
Thank you so much for your replies.
Best wishes always.
Frank Anderson says
James your questions and thought are equally appreciated. I have no need to create or fabricate. This is a subject I have been paying attention since the 7th grade in military school. WE still have good things to do! Frank
Keith O says
They could always try the ultimate area denial weapon on the site.
Drop lots and lots of 44 gal drums full of pig fat. That ought to keep them away for awhile.
revereridesagain says
Is the Iranian Parliament “unbombable”? Asking for a friend.
Frank Anderson says
B., my reading on the subject tells me Strontium 90 is not hot enough to deny ground the way you imagine. People could pass through the radioactive areas to reach the safe areas inside the mountain. Other materials are much hotter for shorter periods. The big problem is that any bomb that produces such fallout also spreads it far beyond where it explodes. The US Government has published for decades through the Government Printing Office a book titled The Effects of Nuclear Weapons. A copy may be available at a nearby library. There is much written about Doomsday Machines in Herman Kahn’s book, On Thermonuclear War, that may illustrate options worth considering. That book from the 1950’s is still a useful resource in thinking about the use of bombs.
Considering that a bomb can be made the size of a basketball, there is no telling how many it would take to smuggle ONE inside the facility for an unscheduled test. Check out the nuclear weapons museum in Albuquerque to see models of all sizes from basketball to bus.
Westman says
Perhaps a better approach to Iran’s nuclear production, rather than bombing for physical destruction, would be the injection of high level, long half-life, nuclear wastes into those facilities – making them uninhabitable. Any nation that possesses nuclear power or breeder reactors will have a ready supply.
Frank Anderson says
W., “There is more than one way to (fill in the blank)___________________.” The problem I see with the suggestion is delivering and distributing enough material to kill quickly. Remember that Iran killed thousands of unarmed teen-agers in the Iraq war by walking them ahead of soldiers through mine fields. When death is their goal and the instant path to their great reward, the purpose they wish to accomplish in the process of dying must be removed. I THINK, my opinion, that means destroying the facility instead of simply trying to deny it.
Walter Sieruk says
The government authorities and officials of the State of Israel have a duty and responsibility to ensure the safety security and lives of the people who are citizens of that nation from attacks, be it nuclear armed missiles and other deadly weapons.
Therefore, if the Israeli Air force strikes such military bases in that hostile Jewish and Israel hating that Islamic regime of its righteous and just strike in self-defense.
As the fifth President of the United States, James Monroe, wisely, had declared “The right to self-defense never ceases. It is among the most sacred, and alike necessary to nations and to individuals.”
libertyORdeath says
Sounds like it’s time for Stuxnet 2.0
Hudson says
Is Iran’s New Nuclear Facility Really Unbombable? I know a good way to find out.
OLD GUY says
Find the weak spot and seal the mountain and all inside. You have to have Air, seal the facility and they will all die a vary slow ugly death trapped in their nuclear mountain.