It was not even two months ago, at the beginning of January, that Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and Russian President Putin seemed to be best friends forever. Turkey had continued to insist, against the wishes of the United States and other NATO members, on buying the Russian S-400 missile defense system, even if that infuriated the Americans (which also meant that Turkey would not be allowed to buy the American F-35 stealth fighter jet). At a meeting in Istanbul on January 8, the two leaders inaugurated TurkStream, the dual natural gas line connecting their countries, opening up a new export path for Russian gas into Turkey and Europe. Both Erdogan and Putin were beaming, promising ever greater cooperation in trade and diplomacy. That was then.
But this is now. At the very end of February, Turkey was threatening to destroy the advancing Syrian army in Idlib, and also wanted to make sure that Russia would keep out of any direct involvement on the Syrian side. Furthermore, Turkey is demanding that NATO back it up in any clash with Russia, apparently still laboring under the illusion that NATO members will come to Turkey’s aid, and enforce a no-fly zone in Idlib Province, against both Syrian and Russian planes. NATO is a mutual defense pact that is supposed to be invoked when a member state is the object of aggression. But in Syria, Turkey moved its forces uninvited into Idlib province, and could well be considered not the victim of aggression, but the aggressor. Further, Erdogan’s many anti-Western statements and acts, including his plans for a pan-Islamic military force to destroy Israel, and his remarks about a possible war “between the crescent and the cross,” leaving no doubt as to which side in that conflict Turkey would be on, have made many NATO countries most unenthusiastic about taking Turkey’s side in a dispute of its own making.
Here is the latest news about the recent attack on Turkish troops by the Syrian army in Idlib, and its possible consequences.
At least 33 Turkish soldiers were killed in an air strike by Syrian government forces in northwestern Idlib province as Turkey vowed “to respond in kind” with attacks on “all” their positions.
The rapid escalation of the conflict on Friday [February 28] also threatened another refugee crisis as media reports cited Turkish officials as saying they “opened the gates” for Syrian refugees to transit unimpeded to Europe.
Despite warnings after the first strike, the Syrian regime unfortunately continued its attacks, even targeting ambulances,” Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said on Friday, adding retaliatory attacks killed “309 regime troops”.
Turkish forces destroyed five Syrian regime choppers, 23 tanks, 10 armored vehicles, 23 howitzers, five ammunition trucks, a SA-17, a SA-22 air defense system as well as three ammunition depots,” Akar added.
Russia said Ankara failed to inform it that Turkish troops were fighting alongside rebels in Idlib – comments denied by Turkey.
Turkey has claimed, on the contrary, that the Russians had been fully informed as to where Turkish troops were located. And one may wonder why Russia would have raised the issue at all, unless it had been the Russians who, not having been properly informed by the Turks as to where their own troops were, had in turn misinformed the Syrians that Turkish troops were not in the area that the Syrians planned on bombing and did, in fact, bomb, killing 33 Turkish troops.
“Turkish soldiers who were in the battle formations of terrorist groups came under the fire of Syrian troops,” Russia’s defence ministry said in a statement.
The Russians continue to blame the Turks who, by mimicking “the battle formations of terrorist groups [i.e., Syrian opposition forces]” misled the Syrians into taking them for those “terrorists.”
Russian state television reported Turkish military specialists were using shoulder-fired missiles to try to shoot down Russian and Syrian military aircraft over Idlib.
The deaths were the largest number of fatalities suffered by Turkey in a single day since it first intervened in Syria in 2016. In response, Turkey warned it will attack “all known targets of the Syrian regime.”
Having made such a threat, Turkey will now have a hard time climbing down. It is boxing itself into a corner where it will have to massively retaliate against the Syrians, or lose face, and if the Turks do as much damage as they intend, Syria will call on Russia to retaliate in turn, which would lead to an escalation that cannot possibly benefit Turkey.
“The Assad regime represents a threat to our national security, the region and Europe since it began acting like a criminal network terrorising its own citizens,” Fahrettin Altun, the head of Turkey’s presidential communications department, told Al Jazeera.
The Assad regime does not represent a threat to the national security of Turkey, the region, or Europe militarily. It is a threat, however, because its actions in the civil war have led five million Syrians to flee, and these refugees have strained the resources of Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan2 the countries that have taken in almost all of them. Not a threat to national security, in a military sense, but definitely a threat to the financial and societal well-being of the host countries.
“The regime has taken advantage of the international silence in the face of its crimes for years.”
The Syrian regime has been denounced at the U.N. in many resolutions, for its use of chemical weapons, its deliberate attacks on civilians, and its preventing humanitarian aid from reaching civilian areas. There has been “no international silence” about Assad’s flouting of all the rules of war.
Retaliatory drone and artillery strikes hit Syrian army positions in southern and eastern parts of the province, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said.
Fighting took place during a Russia-backed Syrian government offensive to seize the war-torn country’s last opposition-held stronghold, which is home to more than three million people.
The ferocious bombing campaign and ground assault have displaced nearly one million people since December, more than half of whom are children. The Syrian offensive has also engulfed many of the 12 military observation posts Turkey has in Idlib.
Rhami Dogan, the governor of Turkey’s Hatay province bordering Syria’s Idlib region, said 32 wounded troops were being treated in hospitals. Turkey has had 54 soldiers killed in Idlib since the beginning of February.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov offered condolences to Turkey on Friday, saying “such tragedies” can be averted.
President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke by phone on Friday to discuss the crisis and both “expressed serious concern” over the escalation, the Kremlin said.
Russia and Turkey are worried about different “escalations” of the conflict. Russia is worried about massive retaliation, at 200 sites all over Syria, as promised by Turkey against the Assad regime, which Moscow supports. Turkey is worried about the Syrian attacks on its own forces in Idlib, and on the possible involvement of Russia in helping the Syrian forces, aiding them, for example, in the targeting of Turkish troops, or possibly themselves bombing the Turkish positions if the Syrian bombings prove ineffective.
In a statement, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed “grave concern” of an escalation of violence and called for an immediate ceasefire. He said “the risk of even greater escalation grows by the hour” without urgent action.3
As fighting raged, the United Nations said it was having “catastrophic” humanitarian consequences, with at least 134 civilians, including 44 children, killed in February, and schools and hospitals destroyed.
Seven children were among 11 people killed when an air strike hit a school in northern Idlib on Tuesday, according to the UN.
Through his spokesman, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg issued a statement condemning the “indiscriminate” air strikes by the Syrian regime and Russian forces. He urged de-escalation by all parties of “this dangerous situation.”
NATO nations will meet on Friday [February 27] to address the crisis.
Following the air attack, Erdogan held a two-hour emergency security meeting in Ankara that was attended by ministers and military officials.
Defence Minister Hulusi Akar and Turkish commanders directed operations in Syria at the Turkish border, state-owned Anadolu news agency said.
Syrian state news agency, SANA, carried a brief report saying Turkey acknowledged its forces were killed “in operations of the Syrian Arab Army against a terrorist organization”, adding Syrian troops were repelling attacks by “terrorist groups backed by Turkey.” Turkey has sent thousands of troops and heavy military hardware into Syria and Erdogan has warned Turkey would launch a full-scale offensive to repel Syrian forces unless they pulled back from Turkish observation posts in the region.
Assad’s regime is monstrous, but in the Idlib battle, Turkey has been the aggressor against Syria. Turkey invaded Syria, not vice-versa. Article 4 of NATO’s founding document allows a member to request help if it feels its territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened. None of those apply to the situation here, unless the Turks argue that their security is threatened because of the millions of Syrian refugees they now have within their borders, and they worry about possibly a million more to come from Idlib. Those refugees are an expense, no doubt, but let’s remember that Europe has contributed billions of dollars to Turkey for their upkeep. Those refugees do not threaten Turkish security. NATO members are clearly unwilling to take actions, such as establishing a No-Fly Zone over Idlib, that might bring them into direct conflict with Russia. That’s a decision they should stick to.
Vladimir Dzhabarov, a senior Russian lawmaker, said on Friday any full-scale Turkish military operation in Idlib would end badly for Ankara, the Interfax news agency reported.
That is certainly true. The Russians cannot possibly allow the Turks to push the Syrian army back in Idlib; if the Turks look like they are succeeding, or still worse, managing to push the Syrians completely out of Idlib, and even further back toward Damascus, the Russians will have to intervene or be seen as a feeble friend and ineffective ally. The perception of Russia as a superpower has to be maintained, and the Turks will either be defeated by a Russian -backed Syrian army or, more likely, by Russian fighters who have been ordered by Moscow to engage directly with the Turks, of course, insisting that they had been attacked first.